The decision

Make a piece of what you sell yourself, or pay another company to make it for you.

What the record shows

22 of 32 judged decisions were never undone. 6 were walked back, several of them factories brought home.

The lesson

Giving work away is cheap and getting it back is not. The plants brought home to make a point were the ones that closed.

The plant Boeing sold, and bought back

In 2005 Boeing sold its fuselage plant in Wichita, Kansas, for about $900 million in cash. The idea was to stop building the big pieces of its airplanes and become a lean systems integrator: design the plane, buy the parts, put them together.

The division had cost about $2.2 billion a year to run, and selling it turned that cost into a supplier's invoice. Nineteen years later Boeing agreed to buy the business back. Explaining why, it said that bringing the work home would

“strengthen aviation safety, improve quality and serve the interests of our customers, employees, and shareholders”Boeing, on reacquiring Spirit AeroSystems, as recorded in the Boeing case

The price, agreed in July 2024, was a total enterprise value of about $8.3 billion, and the deal brought about 15,000 employees back inside. The retreat had started much earlier: in March 2008, Boeing moved to buy out a partner's stake in a 787 assembly plant to regain direct control of its supply chain.

That is the whole decision in one story. Selling the plant looked like a saving because the saving was easy to count. What it cost to depend on someone else for the fuselage showed up later, and it showed up all at once. The rest of this guide is about the companies that faced a version of that choice, which way they went, and which of them had to go back.

What make or buy is

Definition

A make-or-buy decision is the choice between doing a piece of work inside your company and paying another company to do it. When a company chooses to make more of the chain that runs from raw material to customer, it is called vertical integration.

The choice is never all or nothing. Every company buys something, so the real question is which layer to own: the part customers pay for, the part whose failure stops the line, or neither. It runs in both directions. A company can reach back toward its suppliers, as Nucor did when it built its own steel mill, or forward toward its customers, as BYD did when a battery maker bought a carmaker.

Why it is so hard

On paper this is a cost comparison: what it costs to make the thing, against what it costs to buy it. In a real company, three things make that comparison wrong.

1

The saving shows; the dependence doesn't

A supplier's price is on an invoice. What it costs on the day that supplier can't deliver is on no spreadsheet until the day it happens.

2

Know-how leaves with the work

Once another company has made a part for years, it understands the part better than you do. Taking the work back means buying that knowledge, at a price the other side sets.

3

Factories are slow and stubborn

A plant takes years to build and fixes a cost for a decade. If the bet is wrong, the building is still there, and so are the people in it.

The ways companies did it

The decisions on record take five shapes. Some move work inside, some move it out, and one keeps it outside but ties it down.

Make it

Build the part you depend on

Make the input a supplier could squeeze you on.

Nucor
Built its own steel mill in 1969 to escape a single supplier that kept raising prices. After early casting failures, earnings rebounded 140% in 1971 and another 70% in 1972.
BYD
A battery maker, it bought a carmaker in 2003 for HK$269 million. A 2023 teardown of its Seal found about 75% of the parts made in-house, against 46% for the Chinese-built Tesla Model 3, and a production cost about 15% lower.
Buy the maker

Acquire the supplier, or its people

Buy the company, or the team, that already knows how.

Apple
Paid $278 million for the chip designer P.A. Semi in 2008. Apple's first in-house chip, the A4, shipped in 2010, and in 2019 it paid $1 billion for most of Intel's smartphone modem business.
ASML
Agreed in 2012 to buy its supplier Cymer for €1.95 billion, and in 2016 paid €1 billion for 24.9% of Carl Zeiss SMT, which made its optics. The first chips made with its EUV machines reached smartphones in 2018.
Tie it up

Own the contract, not the factory

Get a supplier to work only for you, and leave the plant on its books.

7-Eleven
Since 1979 Seven-Eleven Japan's fresh food has come from independent plants that make it for no one else. By February 2024 that network ran 172 factories across Japan.
Uniqlo
Formalized its partnership with the fiber maker Toray in 2006 and left the mills to Toray. HEATTECH, the fabric they developed together, went from 1.5 million units in 2003 to 130 million by 2012.
Hand it out

Sell the plant and buy the parts

Let a specialist make it, and keep the capital.

Boeing
Sold Wichita in 2005, as in the story above.
Peloton
Bought Tonic, a bike factory in Taiwan, for $47.4 million in 2019. In July 2022 it said it was leaving owned manufacturing and moving its bikes and treadmills to a contract maker, Rexon.
Bring it home

Move the making closer to the customer

Build where the buyers are, instead of shipping across an ocean.

TSMC
Announced a chip plant in Arizona in 2020 at about $12 billion. The price rose to $20 billion and full production slipped to 2025, but by October 2024 its yields were about 4 percentage points above comparable plants in Taiwan, and announced Arizona investment later reached $165 billion.
GE Appliances
Brought its GeoSpring water heater home from Asia to Louisville in 2012, in a $38 million plant meant to prove that lean assembly could beat cheap overseas labor. GE stopped making it at the end of 2016 because of low sales.

What 34 companies did

Here is every decision on record, placed by the year it was made and marked by how it turned out. Hover a mark, or open the table, for the company and the outcome.

34 make or buy decisions, 1969 to 2026

Each mark is one decision. "Never undone" means the company did not reverse it, not that it worked.

Never undone22Kept in part4Walked back6Too early to call2
1960198020002020
Show as a table
CompanyYearChoiceOutcome
Nucor1969Build own millNever undone
7-Eleven1979Contractual exclusive supply networkNever undone
Uniqlo (Fast Retailing)1987Adopt SPA manufacturer-retailer modelNever undone
Seven-Eleven Japan1991Acquire the licensorNever undone
Ericsson2000Single-source from PhilipsWalked back
Amazon2003Sell infrastructure as a productNever undone
BYD2003Integrate forward into carsNever undone
Boeing2005Sell Wichita, outsource fuselagesWalked back
Uniqlo (Fast Retailing)2006Lock exclusive co-developed fiberNever undone
Apple2008Acquire chip-design talentNever undone
Boeing2008Buy back supply-chain controlToo early to call
Caterpillar2010Build Texas regional hubNever undone
Master Lock2011Reshore some productionWalked back
Apple2012Assemble a Mac in USKept in part
ASML2012Take equity in suppliersNever undone
GE Appliances2012Reshore production to LouisvilleWalked back
Amazon2013Build own delivery networkNever undone
Walmart2013Pledge American-made purchasingNever undone
Tesla2014Build the cellsNever undone
Tencent2015Buy out Riot entirelyNever undone
Foxconn2017Pledge the $10B LCD plantKept in part
Apple2019Acquire Intel's modem businessNever undone
Shopify2019Build fulfillment networkWalked back
Spotify2019Own studios and showsKept in part
Stanley Black & Decker2019Build flagship automated plantWalked back
Tesla2019Localize suppliers in ShanghaiNever undone
TSMC2020Build fab in ArizonaNever undone
Intel2021Pursue IDM 2.0 foundryNever undone
Nvidia2022Move gaming to TSMC 4NNever undone
Peloton2022Exit owned manufacturingNever undone
Chipotle2023Franchise the Middle EastNever undone
Cisco2024Acquire SplunkNever undone
UPS2025Cut Amazon volumeKept in part
Fox2026Acquire RokuToo early to call
Source: Stratrix Decision Records, Vertical-Integration Bet (34 verified records). Outcome as recorded in each case.

Of the 32 decisions that can be judged, 22 were never undone, 6 were walked back and 4 were kept only in part.

The walk-backs

Put the reversals and the partial retreats side by side and three groups show. One came to depend on a supplier and found out what that dependence cost. Another brought work home to make a point, and closed the plant when the point stopped paying. The third bought its way into a layer next to its own business, studios or warehouses, and sold or folded it when it did not pay.

CompanyWhat it didHow it was undoneKind of move
Ericsson2000Made Philips the only source of its radio chips, to simplify its supply chainA fire at the Philips plant cut supply; the handset unit went into the Sony Ericsson joint venture in October 2001A shortfall estimated at 7 million phonesOne supplier, no backup
Boeing2005Sold its Wichita fuselage plant for about $900 millionAgreed in July 2024 to buy Spirit AeroSystems, and the plant with it, backA total enterprise value of about $8.3 billionSold a core skill
Master Lock2011Brought about 100 jobs back to its Milwaukee plant as Chinese costs roseThe plant closed in March 2024, after more than 100 yearsTerminations of over 300 employeesBrought home a slice
GE Appliances2012Reshored its GeoSpring water heater to a $38 million Louisville plantProduction stopped at the end of 2016; the equipment left for Michigan after March 2018About 300 hourly workers and 23 salaried employees affectedBrought home a showcase
Foxconn2017Pledged a $10 billion LCD plant in WisconsinIn 2021 the plan was cut to $672 million and 1,454 jobs; the LCD plant was never builtAnnounced, not built
Spotify2019Bought podcast studios and exclusive shows, starting with about €300M for Gimlet and AnchorFolded Gimlet and Parcast into one studio in 2023 and renewed Rogan without exclusivity in 2024Over $800 million spent on podcast acquisitionsOwned the wrong layer
Shopify2019Set out to build its own fulfillment network, buying the warehouse-robot maker 6 River Systems for about $450MIn 2023 sold 6 River Systems to Ocado and the majority of its logistics business to Flexport, for a 13% equity stake and no cash6 River Systems resold for $12.7 millionOwned the wrong layer
Stanley Black & Decker2019Built an automated Craftsman plant in Fort Worth, promising about 500 jobsAnnounced its closure in March 2023 after the process never fully ramped$44 million of write-downs; 175 jobs cutUnproven process, full scale

The kind of move is Stratrix's reading of each case. Foxconn and Spotify were kept only in part; the rest were undone.

The Ericsson row has a twin, though it is filed as a crisis decision rather than a sourcing one. The same March 2000 fire at the same Philips chip plant hit Nokia too. Nokia read Philips's reassuring first report as a reason to check, escalated within days and lined up other chip capacity. Ericsson took the report at face value. Nokia took the market; Ericsson's shortfall was estimated at 7 million phones.

The reshorings that failed each brought home one product or a slice of output: a water heater, part of a lock range, one family of hand tools. The ones that held were built for demand that was already there. Caterpillar's $200 million plant in Victoria, Texas took over the excavators bound for U.S. customers, survived a trade-war layoff in 2019, and was adding 200 positions in 2025.

Owning the work is cheap to give up and expensive to get back.

What the share price did

For many of the decisions there is a clean market record: the company's total return over the three years after the decision, against the S&P 500.

Three years after the decision, against the S&P 500

Percentage points of total return above or below the index, for the 11 decisions with a clean market record. 55% beat it; the median was +17.6 points.

Never undoneKept in partWalked back
−100+225+550+875+12000Nvidia 2022+1146.7Apple 2019+162.6Apple 2008+137.9ASML 2012Boeing 2005TSMC 2020Apple 2012Shopify 2019Spotify 2019Intel 2021−62.6Chipotle 2023−96.4median +17.6
Show as a table
CompanyYearvs S&P 500, 3 yearsOutcome
Nvidia2022+1146.7Never undone
Apple2019+162.6Never undone
Apple2008+137.9Never undone
ASML2012+103.7Never undone
Boeing2005+46.6Walked back
TSMC2020+17.6Never undone
Apple2012−7.9Kept in part
Shopify2019−21.2Walked back
Spotify2019−30.5Kept in part
Intel2021−62.6Never undone
Chipotle2023−96.4Never undone
Source: Stratrix Decision Records, market field. A company with two decisions in one window is shown once. Share prices move for many reasons: read this as context, not cause.

Read it slowly. Boeing's sale of Wichita beat the index by 46.6 points over the next three years, and was undone nineteen years later at a total enterprise value of about $8.3 billion. Intel's 2021 decision to build chips for others still stands; its shares trailed the index by 62.6 points over three years, and its foundry lost $13 billion in 2024. Three years is too short to see what a sourcing decision costs.

How to run this decision

If you are weighing a version of this choice, here is what the record suggests doing, in order.

  1. Name the layer customers pay for

    Before you compare costs, write down the one part of the product that makes customers choose you, and the one part whose failure stops the line. Those are the candidates to own or to tie down. Everything else can be bought. Uniqlo decided in 1987 to control everything from design to the price tag, and it still leaves the fiber mills to Toray.

    Seen in: Uniqlo, 1987 · BYD, 2003
  2. Don't let a single supplier be why it was cheaper

    If a sole supplier is the cheaper option, say what a second one would cost and treat the difference as insurance you are choosing not to buy. Ericsson made Philips its only source of radio chips to simplify its supply chain, so when the plant burned there was no qualified alternative.

    Seen in: Ericsson, 2000
  3. Price the buy-back before you sell

    Assume you are wrong and must bring the work home in fifteen years, at a price the other side sets. Put that price next to the yearly saving. Boeing sold Wichita for about $900 million and bought it back at a total enterprise value of about $8.3 billion.

    Seen in: Boeing, 2005 and 2024
  4. Treat a supplier's reassurance as a question

    When a key supplier says a problem will be fixed soon, check the claim and start looking for other capacity the same week. Nokia escalated within days of Philips's first report; Ericsson waited, and its phone business was badly damaged.

    Seen in: Nokia and Ericsson, 2000
  5. Prove the process small before you build the flagship

    A new plant that depends on a process nobody has run at scale is two bets, not one. Stanley Black & Decker built its Fort Worth plant around a first-of-its-kind automated process, never fully ramped it, and announced the closure less than three years after the plant opened.

    Seen in: Stanley Black & Decker, 2019
  6. Bring work home for demand, not for a headline

    Reshoring one product to show that it can be done leaves a plant with no reason to exist when that product's sales slip. Build where enough demand already sits to keep the plant busy in a bad year, and give it more than one thing to make.

    Seen in: GE Appliances, 2012 · Caterpillar, 2010
  7. Try a contract before a deed

    An exclusive partner who builds only for you gives you much of the control of ownership without the capital. Seven-Eleven Japan and Uniqlo both chose that route, and ASML took stakes only in suppliers it could not replace.

    Seen in: 7-Eleven, 1979 · Uniqlo, 2006 · ASML, 2012

To work the numbers for your own case, read Make or buy: how to decide what your company must own.

Warning signs

What it has looked like when this decision was going wrong.

  • The only reason given for a sole supplier is that one is simpler than two.Ericsson, 2000
  • The case for selling a plant has a line for the saving and none for buying it back.Boeing, 2005
  • The new plant exists to prove a point, and the point is the headline.GE Appliances, 2012 · Stanley Black & Decker, 2019
  • The investment is a pledge with a big number and nothing binding behind it.Foxconn, 2017
  • A supplier's reassuring report is accepted without a check.Ericsson, 2000

All 34 cases

Each case is one company at one decision: what was on the table, what it chose, why, and what followed, with every fact sourced.

Never undone · 22

Kept in part · 4

Walked back · 6

Too early to call · 2

Questions

What is a make-or-buy decision?
The choice between doing a piece of work inside your company and paying another company to do it. Choosing to make more of the chain yourself is called vertical integration; choosing to buy more of it is called outsourcing.
What is the difference between vertical integration and outsourcing?
They are the two directions of the same decision. Vertical integration brings work inside, by building a plant or buying a supplier. Outsourcing sends it out, by selling a plant or signing a supply contract. Many companies do both at once, for different parts of what they sell.
What are examples of vertical integration?
Nucor building its own steel mill, BYD buying a carmaker to use its batteries, Apple designing its own chips after buying P.A. Semi, and Amazon building its own delivery network. Boeing's sale and later repurchase of its Wichita fuselage plant is the clearest example in this guide of an outsourcing decision being undone.
Why do reshoring projects fail?
In the cases on record, the reshorings that were undone each brought home one product or a slice of output: a water heater, part of a lock range, a family of hand tools. When that product's sales or process faltered, the plant had nothing else to make.

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