Succession Question
What happens after the defining leader is gone?
This measures whether a decision STUCK, not whether it worked. A decision counts as held when the company never undid it — BlackBerry's refusal to take BBM off its own handsets held, and BlackBerry went to 0.5% of the smartphone market. Held over settled: 17 records whose verdict is in, from forks between 1997–2025, with 9 still too early to call and counted in neither. It is what happened to the companies on record, not the odds for your decision: the corpus covers decisions documented well enough to verify, which skews toward companies that lasted long enough to be written about.
The market’s view. Across the 16 cases where the company’s shares can be followed for three years, the median return was −9.1 pts against the S&P 500, and 44% beat it. These are well-documented decisions, not a random sample, so read this as context, not a forecast. Derived from market data.
Starbucks, Apple, Sony, JPMorgan Chase, Samsung, Coca-Cola, McDonald's, Costco and 16 more faced this decision. Below is what was on the table, what each chose, and what it returned.
The cases
- 2008
Starbucks
HeldWhether chairman Schultz should retake the CEO title, replacing Jim Donald
Stated reasonSchultz returned to the CEO role for the long term amid the company's decline
What happenedRead the full analysis →- 2008-01 share price on announcement: shares jumped roughly 9-10% on the news
- 2008 US same-store sales: U.S. comps fell 5% for fiscal 2008
- 2008 FY2008 profit: profit fell to $315.5M, down ~53% from FY2007
- 2011
Apple
HeldWhether an operator-successor could create value at Apple after a visionary founder
Stated reasonJobs recommended in writing that the board execute the succession plan and name Cook CEO
What happenedRead the full analysis →- 2026-04 Apple market value: the store is worth more than $4 trillion
- 2024 Services revenue: roughly $96 billion a year by fiscal 2024
- 2026-04 Stock performance under Cook: stock rose roughly 2,000% while the S&P 500 rose about 503%
- 2012
Sony
HeldWhether to hand Hirai personal charge of the money-losing TV business or delegate it
Stated reasonHis mandate as new CEO was to turn around the television business
What happenedRead the full analysis →- 2013-02 quarterly loss: eighth consecutive quarterly loss; TV in its ninth straight year of red ink
- 2016-01 TV unit profitability: after more than $7 billion in losses, poised to again post an annual profit as a separate subsidiary
- 2012-05 annual loss: record annual loss of 457 billion yen, eighth straight year of losses in TVs
- 2020
JPMorgan Chase
Held in partHow to run the bank while Dimon was in surgery: activate existing co-presidents or improvise a new arrangement
Stated reasonPinto and Smith had held the co-president title for about two years, so activating them was an announcement rather than a decision
What happenedRead the full analysis →- 2021-05-18 structure of the co-presidency: Gordon Smith retired and Daniel Pinto became sole President and COO, ending the two-person co-presidency
- 2025-01-14 operating chief succession: JPMorgan named Jennifer Piepszak COO effective immediately, replacing Pinto, with his retirement set for 2026
- 2020-03-12 operational continuity during recovery: The co-presidents, not Dimon, told staff he had been discharged and was 'back at home'
- 2021
Samsung
HeldHow to pay the record inheritance tax without losing family control of Samsung
Stated reasonPaying through loans and dividends rather than selling core shares tightened rather than loosened family control of the group
Committed12 trillion won — about $8 billion (inheritance tax paid in six installments over five years)
What happenedRead the full analysis →- 2022-10-27 governance role: appointed Executive Chairman of Samsung Electronics
- 2021-04 Lee Jae-yong direct Samsung Electronics stake: rose to 1.67% from 0.70%
- 2021-04 Lee Jae-yong Samsung Life Insurance stake: jumped to 10.44% from 0.06%
- 1997
Coca-Cola
ReversedWhether to elevate the pre-designated deputy to chairman and CEO after Goizueta's death
Stated reasonIvester was the designated heir already doing the job as president and COO, so the handover was a formality
What happenedRead the full analysis →- 2000-04-19 CEO tenure ended: Ivester announced plan to retire and relinquished the role effective April 19, 2000, roughly two and a half years in
- 1999-12-06 stock reaction: Coca-Cola's stock fell sharply on the retirement news
- 2004
McDonald's
HeldWhether to name a permanent CEO immediately from inside or run a search process
Stated reasonBell had been the heir apparent already functionally running the company since his December 2002 promotion, so promoting him changed the title, not the strategy
What happenedRead the full analysis →- 2004-11-22 second CEO transition filled from inside: The same day Bell resigned, the board named vice chairman Jim Skinner CEO and elected Mike Roberts as president and COO
- 2004 strategy continuity: Cantalupo's turnaround program continued under Bell, then under Skinner
- 2010
Costco
HeldHow to hand the CEO role to Jelinek
Stated reasonA public runway makes the handoff survivable even if the heir turns out wrong
What happenedRead the full analysis →- 2023 Annual revenue: grew from $99 billion in 2012 to $242.3 billion
- 2023 Warehouse count: grew from 617 to 861
- 2012
Yahoo
ReversedShould Yahoo's board hire a transformational CEO to turn around the operating business, or manage the company as a holding vehicle toward sale?
Stated reasonThe board had run out of patience and hired the most credible product visionary to make the old machine roar and transform the core business.
What happenedRead the full analysis →- 2017-06-13 company ownership: Verizon paid about $4.48 billion for the whole company, marked down by $350 million after data breach disclosures
- 2017-06-13 CEO tenure end: Mayer remained CEO through the closing and agreed to step off the board, leaving with more than $23 million
- 2019
Apple
Held in partHow to handle design leadership after Ive's departure — name a successor CDO or dissolve the seat
Stated reasonThe article documents no stated Apple reason; the change moved design's reporting line from the CEO to the COO without a named successor chief.
What happenedRead the full analysis →- 2023-02 design leadership structure: Apple eliminated the industrial design chief role entirely; roughly 20 designers began reporting directly to COO Jeff Williams
- 2025-07 design reporting line: with Williams's retirement announced, design leadership was set to report directly to CEO Tim Cook again
- 2025
General Motors
Held in partWhether to name a successor and how to prepare GM's handoff from Barra
Stated reasonGM calls a future role for Anderson premature and speculative, and Barra says the board decides
What happenedRead the full analysis →- 2026-01 successor named: GM called any discussion of a future role for Anderson premature and speculative; no successor publicly named
- 2025 Anderson's authority at GM: Within about six months he became the most influential product executive at GM in more than fifteen years outside of Reuss
- 2011
HP
HeldWhen the CEO seat empties, replace the person or examine the board that keeps hiring and firing them
Stated reasonThe board ousted Apotheker after the stock dropped roughly 40% in his tenure and the company cut its financial outlook multiple times
What happenedRead the full analysis →- 2026-02 CEO succession stability: In February 2026 HP Inc.'s CEO Enrique Lores stepped down and the board again named one of its own members interim chief and opened another search