Stratrix
Moat & Competition

Ecosystem Lock-in

How do they keep customers inside the walls?

12 of 14
settled decisions on record were never reversed
12 stood0 reversed2 held in part1 too early to call

This measures whether a decision STUCK, not whether it worked. A decision counts as held when the company never undid it — BlackBerry's refusal to take BBM off its own handsets held, and BlackBerry went to 0.5% of the smartphone market. Held over settled: 14 records whose verdict is in, from forks between 2003–2026, with 1 still too early to call and counted in neither. It is what happened to the companies on record, not the odds for your decision: the corpus covers decisions documented well enough to verify, which skews toward companies that lasted long enough to be written about.

The market’s view. Across the 6 cases where the company’s shares can be followed for three years, the median return was +47.3 pts against the S&P 500, and 100% beat it. These are well-documented decisions, not a random sample, so read this as context, not a forecast. Derived from market data.

Microsoft, Deere (John Deere), Intuitive Surgical, Intuit, Salesforce, Marriott, Apple, Hilton and 5 more faced this decision. Below is what was on the table, what each chose, and what it returned.

The cases

  1. 2016

    Microsoft

    Held in part

    How should Microsoft distribute Teams to compete with Slack?

    • Bundle Teams into Office 365 — Include Teams at no extra cost inside the existing suitechose this
    • Sell Teams as standalone product — Make Teams a separate purchase competing on features

    Stated reasonBundling turned Teams from a product you choose into one you must actively decline, spreading top-down through existing Office 365 contracts on inertia rather than enthusiasm.

    What happened
    • 2019-07 Teams daily active users vs Slack: Teams passed Slack in daily active users around July 2019, hitting 13 million; Slack crossed 12 million only in September
    • 2020-04 Teams daily active users during pandemic: Teams went from roughly 20 million daily users in late 2019 to 75 million by April 2020
    • 2024-06 EU Statement of Objections: European Commission sent Microsoft a Statement of Objections for tying Teams to Office 365
    Read the full analysis →
  2. 2016

    Deere (John Deere)

    Held in part

    Whether to give equipment owners full repair tools or lock diagnostics behind dealer-only software

    • Lock diagnostics to dealers — Redact owner tools and forbid third-party repair by contractchose this
    • Open full repair access — Give owners and independent shops dealer-level tools and information

    Stated reasonKeep the durable aftermarket revenue by controlling the software key needed to authorize repairs

    What happened
    • 2019 Parts sales vs equipment sales: Parts sales grew 22% while new ag equipment sales fell 19%
    • 2023-04-25 State legislation: Colorado signed the first state right-to-repair law for farm equipment
    • 2025-01-15 Federal antitrust suit: FTC and states sued Deere for monopolizing repair services; case survived motion to dismiss
    Read the full analysis →
  3. 2020

    Intuitive Surgical

    Held

    Whether to soften the EndoWrist usage counter by extending core instruments from 10 uses to 12-18 uses

    • Extend usage limits — Revalidate core instruments to 12-18 uses, cutting price per usechose this
    • Keep 10-use counter — Retain the programmed 10-use limit on core EndoWrist instruments

    Stated reasonSoftening the most controversial lever before litigation could call it coercive

    What happened
    • 2021 customer cutover to extended-use instruments: U.S. and European customers had cut over to the extended-use instruments by the end of 2021
    • 2025-01 SIS antitrust trial outcome: Intuitive won the SIS trial after the court ruled SIS failed to prove a cognizable aftermarket
    • 2025-03-21 class certification in hospital antitrust litigation: the court granted class certification covering a class of hospitals
    Read the full analysis →
  4. 2003

    Intuit

    Held

    Join Free File Alliance to keep the IRS from building competing software rather than face a free public option

    • Join Free File Alliance — Offer a free tier as toll to keep the IRS out of the marketchose this
    • Compete on product alone — Rely on software quality and let the IRS potentially build its own tool

    Stated reasonThe free product was the toll Intuit paid to keep the IRS, the only rival that mattered, out of the market

    What happened
    • 2025 federal lobbying spend: record $3.9 million in federal lobbying in 2025; $53.8 million since 2004
    • 2025 IRS Direct File program: In 2025, that program was ended
    • 2025 Consumer Group revenue: Consumer Group revenue grew to $4.9 billion in FY2025
    Read the full analysis →
  5. 2005

    Salesforce

    Held

    Whether to launch a third-party app marketplace on the Salesforce platform

    • Launch AppExchange marketplace — Invite third-party developers to build and sell apps on the Salesforce platformchose this
    • Sell CRM standalone — Keep selling the CRM product without a developer marketplace

    Stated reasonMake building apps on its platform the most attractive option for developers, so the customer's world fills with software that only runs in one place

    What happened
    • 2025-12 customer adoption of AppExchange apps: 91% of Salesforce customers and 90% of the Fortune 500 use at least one AppExchange app
    • 2025-03 AgentExchange launch: Salesforce launched AgentExchange debuting with over 200 partner solutions
    • 2006 apps and vendors on marketplace: 575 apps from 250 independent software vendors
    Read the full analysis →
  6. 2020

    Marriott

    Held

    How to raise emergency cash during the pandemic collapse: borrow against buildings or sell future loyalty points to card partners

    • Sell future points to partners — Raise cash by selling Bonvoy points and revenue forward to Chase and Amexchose this
    • Borrow against buildings — Take a conventional loan secured on real estate Marriott mostly does not own

    Stated reasonMarriott is mostly an asset-light franchisor that does not own its buildings, but its loyalty points are a product it can sell forward for immediate cash

    What happened
    • 2025 loyalty penetration of global room nights: member share of global room nights rose from 58% to 68%
    • 2025 U.S./Canada room nights from members: 75% of U.S./Canada room nights came from loyalty members
    • 2024-10 FTC data breach settlement: Marriott and Starwood settled with the FTC and 49 states for $52 million and accepted a 20-year security program
    Read the full analysis →
  7. 2014

    Salesforce

    Held

    How to build durable customer lock-in: rely on contracts and data, or engineer a self-defending workforce of credentialed experts

    • Rely on contractual lock-in — Depend on long contracts, data exports, and integrations to hold customers
    • Engineer a credential economy — Build a free certification platform that ties individual careers to the productchose this

    Stated reasonA workforce that has bet its resume on the product defends the platform more fiercely than any contract

    What happened
    • 2026 Contracted forward revenue (RPO): RPO reached $72.4 billion
    • 2025 Operating cash flow: operating cash flow hit $13 billion, the highest in company history
    Read the full analysis →
  8. 2013

    Apple

    Held

    Whether to ship iMessage on Android or keep it exclusive to Apple hardware

    • Ship iMessage on Android — Bring iMessage to Android as a full project
    • Keep iMessage exclusive — Withhold iMessage from Android to preserve lock-inchose this

    Stated reasonBringing iMessage to Android would remove an obstacle to families leaving the iPhone, hurting Apple more than helping

    What happened
    • 2024 Services revenue and margin: Services revenue ran $96.2 billion in fiscal 2024 at a 73.9% gross margin versus 37.2% on Products
    Read the full analysis →
  9. 2021

    Hilton

    Held

    Whether to extend the Hilton Honors points expiration window from 15 to 24 months

    • Keep 15-month expiration — Retain the older, stricter dormancy window
    • Extend to 24 months — Match rivals with a longer inactivity windowchose this

    Stated reasonTo bring the policy in line with rival programs like Marriott Bonvoy and World of Hyatt

    What happened
    • 2024-12-31 Hilton Honors membership: 211 million members, up 17% year-over-year
    Read the full analysis →
  10. 2023

    Oracle

    Held

    Whether to re-price Java SE licensing to a per-employee subscription metric

    • Keep per-user/processor pricing — Retain Named User Plus and Processor metrics for Java SE
    • Adopt per-employee subscription — Price Java SE by total headcount regardless of usagechose this

    Stated reasonTake something a customer can't easily leave, then re-price the contract around a metric the customer can't easily reduce

    What happened
    • 2023 Java bills for existing customers: the per-employee model typically multiplied the bill by two to five times overnight
    Read the full analysis →
  11. 2023

    Thomson Reuters

    Held

    Whether to buy the leading independent AI legal assistant or fight AI internally

    • Acquire Casetext — Buy the best independent AI tool and point it at proprietary contentchose this
    • Build AI internally — Develop its own AI assistant rather than acquire one

    Stated reasonOwn the next AI interface before a challenger builds one people prefer, and run it on the proprietary database

    Committed$650 million in cash (acquisition of Casetext)

    What happened
    • 2024 recurring revenue share of Legal Professionals segment: recurring revenue climbed to 97% of the segment, growing 8% organically at 47.4% adjusted EBITDA margin
    Read the full analysis →
  12. 2024

    Intuit

    Held

    Whether to force QuickBooks Desktop customers onto a recurring subscription model

    • Force desktop to subscription — Migrate captive desktop base onto recurring subscription pricingchose this
    • Leave desktop as is — Keep the existing desktop model unchanged to avoid revenue dip

    Stated reasonIntuit could re-price a captive base and expect it to return to growth because those customers couldn't easily leave

    What happened
    • 2024 QuickBooks Online accounting revenue growth: grew 19% for the year
    Read the full analysis →

The other 3 on record

2025ServiceNowHeld2025ShopifyHeld2026SonyToo early to call