Crisis Response
How did they handle the defining crisis?
Held over settled: 70 records whose verdict is in, from forks between 1980–2026, with 1 still too early to call and counted in neither. This is what happened to the companies on record, not the odds for your decision. The corpus covers decisions documented well enough to verify, which skews toward companies that lasted long enough to be written about.
BP, Tesla, Bud Light, Merck, Target, Tesco, Volkswagen, Steinhoff and 54 more faced this decision. Below is what was on the table, what each chose, and what it returned.
The record
- 2010
BP
HeldHow should BP publicly characterize the spill's magnitude and its own responsibility?
Stated reasonBP's conduct was driven by a desire to save time and money, and its response instinctively minimized the disaster's scale
What happenedRead the full analysis →- 2012 actual flow rate established: roughly 62,000 barrels a day at peak, versus the ~1,000 stated
- 2012-11 criminal plea: BP pleaded guilty to 11 manslaughter counts plus obstruction of Congress, paying about $4.5 billion
- 2014-09-04 gross negligence ruling: Judge Barbier ruled BP grossly negligent, 67% at fault
- 2016
Tesla
Held in partWhether to name a Level 2 driver-assistance product 'Full Self-Driving'
Stated reasonTesla presented the program as the world's most advanced autonomy program, perpetually one software update from arrival
What happenedRead the full analysis →- 2023-12 regulatory recall: December 2023 recall covered some 2 million vehicles with Autosteer for driver-monitoring deficiencies
- 2024-09 securities suit dismissed: court dismissed the securities-fraud suit ruling Musk's autonomy claims 'corporate puffery'
- 2025-08 wrongful-death verdict: Miami jury found Tesla 33% liable and awarded $243 million including $200 million in punitive damages
- 2023
Bud Light
HeldHow to respond to the Bud Light boycott: pick a side or issue a neutral statement
Stated reasonThe statement was designed to offend no one
What happenedRead the full analysis →- 2023-10-21 U.S. dollar sales, four weeks ending Oct 21, 2023: down about 29%
- 2024 U.S. sales-to-retailers one year later: still down 13.7%
- 2025-02 Sales vs pre-boycott and market rank: sales roughly 40% below where they started; Bud Light slipped to third behind Modelo and Michelob Ultra
- 2001
Merck
ReversedAfter the FDA warning letter, should Merck withdraw Vioxx or keep selling it?
Stated reasonThe withdrawal only came when a fresh trial made the danger impossible to keep selling around; Merck kept the revenue while managing the science.
What happenedRead the full analysis →- 2004-09-30 worldwide withdrawal: Merck pulled Vioxx off every shelf in the world in a single day, with more than 80 million people having taken it
- 2007-11-09 product liability settlement: Merck agreed to put a fixed $4.85 billion into a fund for U.S. heart-attack and stroke claims, with no admission of fault
- 2011 DOJ marketing settlement: Merck paid $950 million to resolve DOJ allegations of improper Vioxx marketing
- 2013
Target
HeldWhether to confirm the breach publicly after being scooped
Stated reasonThe company went public after quietly notifying processors and card networks, and after being scooped by a blogger
What happenedRead the full analysis →- 2017-05 multistate settlement: Target agreed to pay $18.5 million to settle a multistate investigation by 47 states and DC
- 2016 cumulative gross breach expenses: cumulative gross breach expenses hit $292 million by the end of fiscal 2016
- 2014-01-10 second larger disclosure: Target disclosed personal information for up to 70 million customers was also stolen
- 2014
Tesco
HeldHow the Audit Committee should treat the auditor's flagged commercial-income manipulation risk
Stated reasonThe committee did not consider commercial income a significant issue for disclosure
What happenedRead the full analysis →- 2017-04-10 SFO Deferred Prosecution Agreement penalty: £129m penalty plus the SFO's costs, with a 50% discount
- 2017 FCA investor redress: compensation estimated at around £85m plus interest, no separate penalty
- 2019-01-23 Criminal cases against three executives: all three cases collapsed without conviction
- 2014
Tesco
HeldHow should Tesco respond to discovering its own accounting profit overstatement?
Stated reasonBurn the rot out in one fire and draw a line under the crisis in a single year rather than letting it smoulder.
What happenedRead the full analysis →- 2017-03-28 criminal penalty: £128,992,500 penalty under a Deferred Prosecution Agreement
- 2017 total legal exposure: total exposure of roughly £235m
- 2019-01 individual convictions: all three prosecutions collapsed; no individual was convicted
- 2015
Volkswagen
ReversedHow to handle the diesel emissions fallout once regulators applied pressure: quietly settle as 'controllable' or proactively disclose
Stated reasonThe board judged the fallout 'controllable and comparable to past cases that had been resolved amicably'
What happenedRead the full analysis →- 2017-04-21 guilty plea and criminal penalty: VW agreed to plead guilty to three criminal felony counts and pay $4.3 billion to U.S. authorities; plea accepted April 21, 2017
- 2020-07 repayments to car buyers: VW had repaid more than $9.5 billion directly to U.S. car buyers, with over 86% of claimants choosing buyback or lease termination
- 2020 total cost of the scandal: Dieselgate had cost VW more than 30 billion euros ($33 billion) in fines, legal costs, and compensation
- 2017
Steinhoff
HeldWhether to disclose the accounting irregularities investigation and accept the CEO's resignation
Stated reasonThe accounting irregularities were under investigation and the chief executive had resigned, prompting the disclosure
What happenedRead the full analysis →- 2019-03 Market value lost: lost 97% of its market value, equivalent to roughly $21 billion
- 2023-08 Fees paid to advisers: paid a total of €447 million (R7.5 billion) to forensic accountants, lawyers and advisers
- 2023-10-13 Final share price and delisting: closed their final trading day at ZAR 0.02 and were delisted from the JSE
- 2018
Meta
HeldHow to disclose the Cambridge Analytica data misuse it already knew about: as a live fact or a hypothetical risk
Stated reasonThe company found it more comfortable to call a known problem a hypothetical one
What happenedRead the full analysis →- 2019-07 FTC privacy penalty: The FTC fined it $5 billion, the largest privacy penalty it had ever imposed, plus a 20-year settlement order
- 2019-07 SEC penalty: The SEC added $100 million for misleading investors about data access
- 2018 Engagement: Engagement fell about 20% from April 2018
- 2019
Apple
HeldHow to respond to right-to-repair pressure while preserving parts pairing
Stated reasonSupport repair that left Apple's control intact and oppose any version that banned parts pairing
What happenedRead the full analysis →- 2022-04-27 Self Service Repair launch: Went live with over 200 parts and a $49 weekly tool-rental kit
- 2023-08-22 Legislative endorsement: Apple publicly endorsed California SB 244 (amended version)
- 2024-02 Continued opposition: Apple's repair architect testified against Oregon SB 1596, which would have banned parts pairing
- 2020
Rio Tinto
ReversedHow to respond to the Juukan Gorge destruction: cut executive bonuses or remove the executives?
Stated reasonThe board's first instinct was to keep the team; it docked variable pay rather than call for resignations.
What happenedRead the full analysis →- 2021-03 chairman resignation: Chairman Simon Thompson later resigned citing ultimate accountability
- 2020-09-11 executive departures: The three executives stepped down 'by mutual agreement' after stakeholders expressed concerns about executive accountability
- 2020 CEO total pay: Jacques received about £13.3 million in total pay, the highest of his tenure, and retained ~£27 million in long-term incentive awards