Crisis & Reinvention

Crisis Response

How did they handle the defining crisis?

70%
of the 70 settled decisions on record held
49 held11 reversed10 held in part1 too early to call

Held over settled: 70 records whose verdict is in, from forks between 1980–2026, with 1 still too early to call and counted in neither. This is what happened to the companies on record, not the odds for your decision. The corpus covers decisions documented well enough to verify, which skews toward companies that lasted long enough to be written about.

BP, Tesla, Bud Light, Merck, Target, Tesco, Volkswagen, Steinhoff and 54 more faced this decision. Below is what was on the table, what each chose, and what it returned.

The record

  1. 2010

    BP

    Held

    How should BP publicly characterize the spill's magnitude and its own responsibility?

    • Minimize and deflectLow-ball the flow rate, resist the video, blame contractorschose this
    • Lead with accountabilityDisclose the true magnitude and absorb blame quickly

    Stated reasonBP's conduct was driven by a desire to save time and money, and its response instinctively minimized the disaster's scale

    What happened
    • 2012 actual flow rate established: roughly 62,000 barrels a day at peak, versus the ~1,000 stated
    • 2012-11 criminal plea: BP pleaded guilty to 11 manslaughter counts plus obstruction of Congress, paying about $4.5 billion
    • 2014-09-04 gross negligence ruling: Judge Barbier ruled BP grossly negligent, 67% at fault
    Read the full analysis →
  2. 2016

    Tesla

    Held in part

    Whether to name a Level 2 driver-assistance product 'Full Self-Driving'

    • Name it Full Self-DrivingMarket a Level 2 system under a name asserting full autonomychose this
    • Call it driver assistanceUse the industry's cautious naming and hands-on messaging

    Stated reasonTesla presented the program as the world's most advanced autonomy program, perpetually one software update from arrival

    What happened
    • 2023-12 regulatory recall: December 2023 recall covered some 2 million vehicles with Autosteer for driver-monitoring deficiencies
    • 2024-09 securities suit dismissed: court dismissed the securities-fraud suit ruling Musk's autonomy claims 'corporate puffery'
    • 2025-08 wrongful-death verdict: Miami jury found Tesla 33% liable and awarded $243 million including $200 million in punitive damages
    Read the full analysis →
  3. 2023

    Bud Light

    Held

    How to respond to the Bud Light boycott: pick a side or issue a neutral statement

    • Both-sides neutral statementIssue a statement that neither defends nor disavows the adchose this
    • Pick a side and own itTake a clear stance in one direction to price the news
    • End uncertainty fastMove quickly to close the argument

    Stated reasonThe statement was designed to offend no one

    What happened
    • 2023-10-21 U.S. dollar sales, four weeks ending Oct 21, 2023: down about 29%
    • 2024 U.S. sales-to-retailers one year later: still down 13.7%
    • 2025-02 Sales vs pre-boycott and market rank: sales roughly 40% below where they started; Bud Light slipped to third behind Modelo and Michelob Ultra
    Read the full analysis →
  4. 2001

    Merck

    Reversed

    After the FDA warning letter, should Merck withdraw Vioxx or keep selling it?

    • Withdraw immediatelyPull Vioxx after the FDA warning letter
    • Keep selling with label warningAdd a cardiovascular label warning and continue marketingchose this

    Stated reasonThe withdrawal only came when a fresh trial made the danger impossible to keep selling around; Merck kept the revenue while managing the science.

    What happened
    • 2004-09-30 worldwide withdrawal: Merck pulled Vioxx off every shelf in the world in a single day, with more than 80 million people having taken it
    • 2007-11-09 product liability settlement: Merck agreed to put a fixed $4.85 billion into a fund for U.S. heart-attack and stroke claims, with no admission of fault
    • 2011 DOJ marketing settlement: Merck paid $950 million to resolve DOJ allegations of improper Vioxx marketing
    Read the full analysis →
  5. 2013

    Target

    Held

    Whether to confirm the breach publicly after being scooped

    • Confirm breach publiclyIssue a statement confirming the 40 million card breachchose this
    • Stay silentSay nothing publicly after the blogger's report

    Stated reasonThe company went public after quietly notifying processors and card networks, and after being scooped by a blogger

    What happened
    • 2017-05 multistate settlement: Target agreed to pay $18.5 million to settle a multistate investigation by 47 states and DC
    • 2016 cumulative gross breach expenses: cumulative gross breach expenses hit $292 million by the end of fiscal 2016
    • 2014-01-10 second larger disclosure: Target disclosed personal information for up to 70 million customers was also stolen
    Read the full analysis →
  6. 2014

    Tesco

    Held

    How the Audit Committee should treat the auditor's flagged commercial-income manipulation risk

    • Treat as significant issueEscalate the flagged manipulation risk for disclosure and scrutiny
    • File as immaterialRecord commercial income as not a significant issue for disclosurechose this

    Stated reasonThe committee did not consider commercial income a significant issue for disclosure

    What happened
    • 2017-04-10 SFO Deferred Prosecution Agreement penalty: £129m penalty plus the SFO's costs, with a 50% discount
    • 2017 FCA investor redress: compensation estimated at around £85m plus interest, no separate penalty
    • 2019-01-23 Criminal cases against three executives: all three cases collapsed without conviction
    Read the full analysis →
  7. 2014

    Tesco

    Held

    How should Tesco respond to discovering its own accounting profit overstatement?

    • Kitchen-sink the lossTake one brutal cleansing loss in a single yearchose this
    • Spread the painSmear the loss across several years

    Stated reasonBurn the rot out in one fire and draw a line under the crisis in a single year rather than letting it smoulder.

    What happened
    • 2017-03-28 criminal penalty: £128,992,500 penalty under a Deferred Prosecution Agreement
    • 2017 total legal exposure: total exposure of roughly £235m
    • 2019-01 individual convictions: all three prosecutions collapsed; no individual was convicted
    Read the full analysis →
  8. 2015

    Volkswagen

    Reversed

    How to handle the diesel emissions fallout once regulators applied pressure: quietly settle as 'controllable' or proactively disclose

    • Contain and settle quietlyAssess fallout as controllable and negotiate an amicable resolutionchose this
    • Proactively disclose the fraudCome clean to regulators and the public before being cornered

    Stated reasonThe board judged the fallout 'controllable and comparable to past cases that had been resolved amicably'

    What happened
    • 2017-04-21 guilty plea and criminal penalty: VW agreed to plead guilty to three criminal felony counts and pay $4.3 billion to U.S. authorities; plea accepted April 21, 2017
    • 2020-07 repayments to car buyers: VW had repaid more than $9.5 billion directly to U.S. car buyers, with over 86% of claimants choosing buyback or lease termination
    • 2020 total cost of the scandal: Dieselgate had cost VW more than 30 billion euros ($33 billion) in fines, legal costs, and compensation
    Read the full analysis →
  9. 2017

    Steinhoff

    Held

    Whether to disclose the accounting irregularities investigation and accept the CEO's resignation

    • Disclose irregularities publiclyPost a SENS notice announcing the investigation and CEO resignationchose this
    • Delay or withhold disclosureAvoid immediate public announcement of the accounting problems

    Stated reasonThe accounting irregularities were under investigation and the chief executive had resigned, prompting the disclosure

    What happened
    • 2019-03 Market value lost: lost 97% of its market value, equivalent to roughly $21 billion
    • 2023-08 Fees paid to advisers: paid a total of €447 million (R7.5 billion) to forensic accountants, lawyers and advisers
    • 2023-10-13 Final share price and delisting: closed their final trading day at ZAR 0.02 and were delisted from the JSE
    Read the full analysis →
  10. 2018

    Meta

    Held

    How to disclose the Cambridge Analytica data misuse it already knew about: as a live fact or a hypothetical risk

    • Disclose misuse as liveTell users and investors the misuse had already happened
    • Frame as hypothetical riskDescribe the data misuse as something that 'may' happenchose this

    Stated reasonThe company found it more comfortable to call a known problem a hypothetical one

    What happened
    • 2019-07 FTC privacy penalty: The FTC fined it $5 billion, the largest privacy penalty it had ever imposed, plus a 20-year settlement order
    • 2019-07 SEC penalty: The SEC added $100 million for misleading investors about data access
    • 2018 Engagement: Engagement fell about 20% from April 2018
    Read the full analysis →
  11. 2019

    Apple

    Held

    How to respond to right-to-repair pressure while preserving parts pairing

    • Genuinely adopt right to repairStop fighting and end parts pairing across states
    • Ration minimum concessionsRelease just enough access to defuse each threat while keeping parts pairingchose this
    • Refuse all concessionsContinue fighting every repair bill openly

    Stated reasonSupport repair that left Apple's control intact and oppose any version that banned parts pairing

    What happened
    • 2022-04-27 Self Service Repair launch: Went live with over 200 parts and a $49 weekly tool-rental kit
    • 2023-08-22 Legislative endorsement: Apple publicly endorsed California SB 244 (amended version)
    • 2024-02 Continued opposition: Apple's repair architect testified against Oregon SB 1596, which would have banned parts pairing
    Read the full analysis →
  12. 2020

    Rio Tinto

    Reversed

    How to respond to the Juukan Gorge destruction: cut executive bonuses or remove the executives?

    • Cut bonuses, keep teamStrip performance bonuses but retain the executives in their roleschose this
    • Remove the executivesHave the responsible executives step down from the company

    Stated reasonThe board's first instinct was to keep the team; it docked variable pay rather than call for resignations.

    What happened
    • 2021-03 chairman resignation: Chairman Simon Thompson later resigned citing ultimate accountability
    • 2020-09-11 executive departures: The three executives stepped down 'by mutual agreement' after stakeholders expressed concerns about executive accountability
    • 2020 CEO total pay: Jacques received about £13.3 million in total pay, the highest of his tenure, and retained ~£27 million in long-term incentive awards
    Read the full analysis →