Eighteen bars and no forks

Picture the roadmap slide in a board deck. Eighteen colored bars across eight quarters, grouped by function. Every bar runs solid to the right-hand edge. A director asks which three matter most. Another asks what would make the company stop one of them. The room studies the slide, and the slide has no answer to either question.

Here is the direct answer. A strategic roadmap is a time-based picture of how an organization gets from where it is to its strategic choices: why it is acting, what it will deliver and build, and in what order. Robert Phaal of Cambridge's Institute for Manufacturing describes the most flexible form as a multi-layered, time-based chart that brings several perspectives into one diagram 1. The template below adds the element most roadmaps leave out: decision points, dated, each with the evidence that will settle it.

The thesis: a strategic roadmap is a schedule of decisions, not of deliverables. Every bar should hang from a strategic choice above it and end at a fork where the evidence says continue, change course or stop. A roadmap without forks makes promises it will keep making long after they stop being true.

A roadmap that shows only the road hides the forks.

Fill in the builder below and it assembles your roadmap as a document you can circulate. The full template, a filled-in example and the method follow it.

Builder

Strategic Roadmap Builder

Fill in the lanes for one strategic choice. The checks flag the gaps that most often turn a roadmap into a list of bars. Your roadmap is assembled below, ready to circulate.

Quote it from your strategy. A choice rules something out.

Write each as a question that the evidence will answer, such as “June 30: do pilot groups keep 80% of spend on auto-reorder? Evidence: pilot order data. Decides: COO.”

Ask the person who argued hardest against the plan to write it in their own words.

Start here

Where roadmaps came from, and what they were for

Technology roadmapping was developed at Motorola in the 1970s to align technology investment with product plans; the first published Motorola roadmap, for car radios, looked ten years ahead 1. Bob Galvin, Motorola's CEO during that period, defined a roadmap as “an extended look at the future of a chosen field of inquiry composed from the collective knowledge and imagination of the brightest drivers of change in that field” 1.

Two details from that origin matter more than the format. First, the layers. Phaal's generic roadmap ties together the questions every strategy has to answer: why do we need to act, what should we do, how should we do it, and by when 1. Second, dissent. Motorola required a “minority report” alongside its consensus roadmap, which Phaal offers as an example of a process that challenges the consensus instead of just recording it 1. Most roadmaps today keep the bars and drop both.

Product teams later pushed against date-heavy roadmaps from a different direction. ProdPad credits Janna Bastow and Simon Cast with creating the Now-Next-Later format in 2012, as an alternative to timeline roadmaps that make promises teams cannot keep 2. The template here keeps dates where they are honest and replaces them with decision points where they are not. For the general concept, see the Lexicon entry on the strategic roadmap; for building one from the strategy down, the Strategy Studio guide on how to build a strategic roadmap.

Start here

The template

Seven lanes, read top to bottom, plus a header. The prompt is the question each lane has to answer. A lane you cannot fill is a finding.

LaneWhat goes inPrompt
HeaderName, owner, horizon (12 to 36 months), date last updated, review cadenceWho keeps this true, and how often?
1. Strategic choice (why)The choice the roadmap serves, quoted from the strategyWhich choice gets harder if this roadmap is cut?
2. Outcomes (what changes)Two to four measures, each with a target and a dateHow will we know the choice is paying off?
3. Initiatives (what we do)Grouped as Committed (next two quarters, dated), Planned (two to four quarters out, ranges) and Options (later, undated)What will we deliver, and how sure are we?
4. Capabilities and resources (how)People, systems, partners and money each initiative needs, by quarterWhat has to exist before the initiative can start?
5. Decision points (the forks)Each decision as a question, with a date, the evidence that will settle it and the person who decidesWhere could this roadmap change, and what would change it?
6. Assumptions and signpostsThe beliefs the roadmap rests on, each with a signal you can watchWhat would tell us early that we were wrong?
7. Minority reportThe strongest view the group overruled, in its holder's wordsWhat did we decide against, and who still thinks we are wrong?

Lanes 1 to 4 are the classic layered roadmap. Lanes 5 to 7 are what make it strategic: they say where the plan will be tested, against what, and what the alternative was.

In practice

How to build it

  1. Start at the top laneQuote the strategic choice word for word. If the best you can write is “grow” or “transform,” stop and get the choice made first; the strategic plan template is the place to write it.
  2. Set the outcomes before the initiativesWrite two to four measures with targets and dates. Initiatives are bets on moving these numbers. Choosing initiatives first produces a roadmap that justifies work already under way.
  3. Sort initiatives by confidence, not by functionCommitted work gets dates and owners. Planned work gets quarters or ranges. Options get no dates at all, only the decision that would turn them into commitments.
  4. Place the forksFor each planned item and each option, ask what would have to be true to commit to it, and when you will know. That question, with its date and decider, is a decision point. Put it on the chart where the bar would otherwise run on.
  5. Check the capacity lane against the initiativesAdd up the people and money each quarter. If the committed work alone exceeds what exists, the roadmap is a wish list. Cut or move bars before anyone sees it.
  6. Write the assumptions and the minority reportList the three to five beliefs the roadmap rests on, each with a signpost. Ask the person who argued hardest against the plan to write the minority report.
  7. Put the reviews in the calendarEach decision point needs a meeting. The quarterly strategy review is the natural home.
In practice

A filled-in roadmap

The company below is invented, as are its numbers. Watch how the decision points change what the bars mean.

LaneQ1–Q2 2027Q3–Q4 20272028
InitiativesCommitted: automated reorder pilot with 10 groups (live by May); usage-data link to two practice-management systems (by June)Planned: national rollout of auto-reorder, Q3 to Q4; dedicated account team for groupsOptions: on-site inventory lockers; equipment-as-a-service
CapabilitiesSix engineers; integration partner contract signed in JanuaryAccount team of 8; second integration partnerLocker hardware supplier, only if chosen
Decision pointsJune 30: do pilot groups keep at least 80% of their consumables spend on auto-reorder? Evidence: pilot order data. Decides: COODecember 15: is subscription margin at least 3 points above transactional? Evidence: Q3 to Q4 account P&L. Decides: CFOJune 2028: commit to lockers? Evidence: locker trial in 5 groups. Decides: CEO
SignpostsPilot groups' order frequency; phone-order shareCompetitor subscription launches; group consolidation dealsLocker trial usage

Look at the June 30 fork. Without it, the national rollout bar starts in Q3 no matter what the pilot shows. With it, the rollout is conditional on a number agreed in advance, and the COO knows that the decision is hers on a specific date. The minority report also turned out to be useful: it named the risk the decision points do not cover, the loss of single-location accounts, and gave the December review something specific to check.

In practice

Dates, confidence and the promise problem

Every date on a roadmap is read as a promise, whatever the legend says. That is the problem ProdPad says Now-Next-Later was created to solve for product teams 2, and it is worse on a strategic roadmap because the audience includes boards and lenders.

The fix is to make confidence visible in the form of each item, not in a footnote:

  • Committed items get a date and an owner. Miss the date and you explain it.
  • Planned items get a quarter or a range, and a link to the decision point that commits them.
  • Options get no date. They get a question, the evidence that would answer it, and when you expect to have it.
  • Decision points always get a date, even when nothing else does. The date of a decision is a promise you can keep, because it depends only on you.
Advanced

Running roadmaps at scale

One roadmap disciplines one choice. A company with eight of them has new problems.

  • The bar as status. On a shared roadmap, having a bar is a sign of importance. Units lobby to get on it and resist coming off, so roadmaps fill up. A rule that every bar must point to a choice in lane 1, and every option must point to a decision point, gives you a principled way to say no.
  • The capacity illusion. Each roadmap's resource lane looks fine alone. Summed across roadmaps, the same engineers appear three times. Add up lane 4 across the portfolio before approving the last roadmap, not after.
  • The consensus trap. Phaal notes the frequent claim that the process of building a roadmap matters more than the document, because of the communication and consensus it builds, and adds that a healthy process should also challenge that consensus, as Motorola did with its minority report 1. A roadmap everyone agreed to easily probably avoided the hard choice.
  • The orphaned roadmap. A review of 78 sector-level roadmapping initiatives, sponsored by the Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs in 2003 and summarized by Phaal, listed among its lessons that a clear link to decision makers is important if roadmapping is to have impact 1. The same holds inside a company: a roadmap that no executive reviews on a schedule decays into a poster.

The senior strategist's job is less to draw roadmaps than to run the forks: making sure each decision point is reached on its date, with its evidence, by the person named, and that the answer changes the chart.

Advanced

The case for the plain Gantt chart

The fair objection: operations, suppliers and customers need dates, not questions. A factory cannot staff a line on “Options, undated.” A Gantt chart with firm dates forces commitment and coordination, and that is worth something.

Agreed, for the committed horizon. The template keeps hard dates exactly where coordination needs them, the next two quarters, and the initiative charter carries the detailed plan for each one. What it refuses to do is extend that precision into periods where nobody knows yet, because a date two years out is not coordination. It is a guess that people will later be blamed for.

A roadmap is a promise about the order of decisions. Draw the road where you know it. Draw the forks where you don't. Then show up at each fork on the day you said you would.

Questions

What is a strategic roadmap?
A strategic roadmap is a time-based picture of how an organization moves from where it is to its strategic choices. It usually has layers: why it is acting, the outcomes it expects, the initiatives it will deliver and the capabilities those need. A useful one also shows dated decision points, where evidence will decide whether to continue, change course or stop.
What should a strategic roadmap template include?
A header with owner, horizon and review cadence, then lanes for the strategic choice, two to four outcomes with targets and dates, initiatives grouped by confidence (committed, planned, options), capabilities and resources, decision points with dates and deciders, assumptions with signposts, and a minority report recording the strongest view the group overruled.
What is the difference between a strategic roadmap and a project plan?
A project plan details how one piece of work gets done: tasks, dates, owners. A strategic roadmap sits above several projects and shows how they combine to deliver a strategic choice, in what order, and where the plan will be tested. Near-term items on a roadmap can carry firm dates; later items carry decision points instead.
Where did roadmapping come from?
Technology roadmapping was developed at Motorola in the 1970s to link technology investment to product plans, and spread to other technology-intensive sectors. Motorola also required a minority report alongside its consensus roadmap. ProdPad says its co-founders created the Now-Next-Later format, which drops dates for later work, for product teams in 2012.

Sources

  1. Phaal, R. (2020). Roadmapping for strategy and innovation. Centre for Technology Management, Institute for Manufacturing, University of Cambridge (13 January 2020). Motorola's development of technology roadmapping in the 1970s and its first published car-radio roadmap looking ten years ahead, citing Willyard and McClees (1987); the Galvin definition (quoted, citing Galvin, 1998, in Science); the multi-layered, time-based framework and its generic questions; Motorola's minority-report requirement; the claim that the process matters more than the document; the 2003 Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs study of 78 roadmapping initiatives and its lessons.
  2. ProdPad. Now-Next-Later roadmap (glossary). ProdPad. ProdPad's account that Janna Bastow and Simon Cast created the Now-Next-Later roadmap in 2012 as an alternative to timeline roadmaps that make promises product teams cannot keep, and its description of the three columns.

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