Forty factors, zero decisions
Terry Hill and Roy Westbrook looked at 50 companies in a UK government manufacturing program. More than 20 had used a SWOT, prepared with the help of 14 consulting firms 2. The lists averaged over 40 factors. The descriptions were general and often meaningless, nothing was prioritized and nothing was verified. Then the punchline: no one subsequently used the outputs in the later stages of the strategy work 2.
Fourteen consulting firms. Forty factors apiece. No decisions.
The short answer. A SWOT lists strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats. A TOWS matrix takes the next step and pairs them: which strengths can capture which opportunities, which strengths can blunt which threats, which opportunities could repair a weakness, and where a weakness meets a threat. Heinz Weihrich introduced the TOWS matrix in 1982 to match external opportunities and threats with internal strengths and weaknesses and so generate strategy options 1.
The argument of this page: a SWOT is an inventory, not an analysis. A factor sitting alone in its quadrant cannot change a decision. It only starts to matter when it meets its opposite number, and the TOWS matrix is the step that forces the meeting.
Forty bullets feel thorough. They decide nothing.
Why a list cannot decide
Look at what the four quadrants do. They sort factors by two questions: inside or outside, helpful or harmful. That sorting is useful, and it is also the trap, because it separates exactly the things that need to be compared. Is a 92% first-visit fix rate a strength? Only against something. Against a rival entering on price, perhaps not much. Against a new regulation that rewards reliability, a great deal. The quadrant cannot tell you which, because the thing it needs to be compared with sits in a different box.
So a SWOT on its own invites the failure Hill and Westbrook found: long lists, because nothing forces a cut, and no use afterward, because nothing connects a factor to an action. Kaplan and Norton describe the SWOT as the summary of the external and internal analysis whose job is to surface the issues the strategy must address 3. A SWOT that does not end in issues and options has not done that job.
For the SWOT method itself, see SWOT Analysis: The Definitive Guide and the SWOT framework page. What follows is the working template: five parts, with fields and prompts, then a filled-in example.
The template, part 1: a short, evidenced SWOT
Part A. Frame the question. Fill in four fields before listing a single factor. Without a question, there is no way to rank anything later.
- Decision or question: What choice will this analysis inform? Example prompt: "Should we enter the commercial segment in our region within two years?"
- Unit and scope: Which business, product line or geography? A company-wide SWOT is usually too broad to support a decision.
- Horizon: Over what period do the opportunities and threats matter?
- Comparison set: Strengths and weaknesses relative to whom? Name the two or three competitors or alternatives customers actually compare you with.
Part B. List the factors, with evidence. One row per factor. Cap each quadrant at seven factors at this stage.
| Field | What to write | Prompt |
|---|---|---|
| Factor | One specific sentence | Would a colleague know exactly what this means and how to check it? |
| Quadrant | S, W, O or T | Strengths and weaknesses are internal and relative to the comparison set; opportunities and threats are external and outside your control. |
| Evidence | Data point, source and date | What would we show the board if challenged? |
| Impact | High, medium or low effect on the Part A question | If this factor changed, would our answer change? |
| Confidence | High, medium or low | Is this measured, estimated or believed? |
- Strengths prompts: What do customers choose us for that competitors cannot easily match? Where are our costs lower? Which assets or capabilities would be hard to copy? A VRIO check helps separate real strengths from things everyone does well.
- Weaknesses prompts: Where do we lose deals, and why? Where are our costs higher than competitors'? What capability would the decision in Part A need that we lack?
- Opportunities prompts: Which customer needs are growing or underserved? What is changing in regulation, technology or competitor behavior that opens a door? Pull these from a PESTEL analysis or an industry analysis rather than brainstorming from scratch.
- Threats prompts: What could make a current strength irrelevant? Which competitor moves, substitutes or cost shifts would hurt most, and how soon?
Part C. Rank and cut. Keep the top three to five factors per quadrant, ranked first by impact on the Part A question and then by confidence. Give each a code (S1, S2, W1 and so on) and move the rest to an appendix. This is the step Hill and Westbrook found missing 2. It is also the step that hurts, because every cut factor belongs to someone in the room.
The template, part 2: the TOWS matrix and options
Part D. Build the TOWS matrix. Put the ranked internal factors across the top and the ranked external factors down the side. Weihrich's four cells produce SO, ST, WO and WT strategies, which he labeled maxi-maxi, maxi-mini, mini-maxi and mini-mini 1.
| Strengths (S1 to S5) | Weaknesses (W1 to W5) | |
|---|---|---|
| Opportunities (O1 to O5) | SO (maxi-maxi): Which strengths can capture which opportunities? Write: "Use S_ to capture O_ by ..." | WO (mini-maxi): Which opportunities could we pursue if we fixed or worked around a weakness? Write: "Overcome W_ to pursue O_ by ..." |
| Threats (T1 to T5) | ST (maxi-mini): Which strengths can blunt which threats? Write: "Use S_ to reduce T_ by ..." | WT (mini-mini): Where does a weakness meet a threat? What must we defend, fix, partner on or exit? Write: "Reduce exposure to T_ given W_ by ..." |
- Every option cites at least one internal and one external factor by code, for example S2 + O1. An option that cites one factor is a SWOT item restated.
- Aim for two to four options per cell. An empty cell is information, not a gap to fill.
- Write options as actions with a verb, not as themes.
- Do not skip the WT cell. It holds the defensive moves and exits, which are the hardest options to raise in a meeting.
Part E. Screen the options. Score each option and pick two or three to develop into full cases. The rest stay on file, with their factor codes, for the next review.
| Option | Cell | Factors used | Size of prize | Feasibility | Reversible? | Next step and owner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Short action statement | SO, ST, WO or WT | For example S2 + O1 | Rough revenue or margin effect | High, medium or low, and why | Yes, partly or no | Analysis needed, by whom, by when |
Filled example: a regional HVAC services company
Notice which factor did the most work. W1, the missing commercial estimators, shows up in three options and blocks most of the rest. In the plain SWOT it was one bullet among twelve. Only the pairings revealed it as the hinge of the whole decision, which is why the acquisition rose to the top.
Reading the matrix, and its limits
Once the cells are filled, read the pattern before the options. Three patterns carry most of the information.
- An empty SO cell. Your strengths do not line up with where the market is going. That is the most important finding a TOWS can produce, and it is usually the one teams paper over with a weak option to avoid an empty box.
- One factor in many options. Like W1 at Ridgeline, it is the hinge. Analyze it first and hardest, because if it is wrong, many options fall together.
- A crowded WT cell nobody wants to discuss. The exits and defensive moves live here. If the session runs out of time before reaching it, that is rarely an accident.
An empty SO cell is the most important finding on the page.
Now the fair objection. TOWS only generates options; it does not choose among them. Its four cells are an arbitrary crossing of two lists, and a team can fill them with plausible-sounding moves that never get tested. Critics of SWOT would say TOWS just makes a longer list out of a short one.
That is right, and it is why the template does not stop at Part D. TOWS is a generator. Part E is where the choice happens, and the business cases after it are where options meet numbers. What TOWS adds is traceability: every option carries the factor codes that justify it, so when the evidence for S2 changes, you know which options to reopen. For heads of strategy there is one more risk at scale. Strengths are graded by the people who own them, and internal teams rarely rate their own capabilities as ordinary. Have someone outside the unit, or a customer interview, check the strengths column before the matrix is built. For sharper structure in the factor lists, MECE helps, and hypothesis-driven problem solving shows how to test the leading option fast.
Using the template well
- Do the external analysis first, so opportunities and threats come from evidence rather than the mood in the room.
- Define strengths and weaknesses against named competitors. Being good at something every competitor is good at is not a strength for strategy purposes.
- Date the SWOT. Factors expire, so redo it when the decision comes back instead of reusing last year's version.
- Keep the factor codes from Part C all the way through Part E, so anyone can trace an option back to its evidence.
Run it early in the annual planning cycle, when the fact base is fresh and the offsite issue list is being set.
The companies Hill and Westbrook studied did not lack information. They had 40 factors each. What they lacked was a forcing step that made each factor meet another and produce a choice. A TOWS matrix is that step. Count your options, not your bullets.
Questions
- What is the difference between SWOT and TOWS?
- SWOT lists strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats. TOWS uses the same four lists but pairs internal factors with external ones to generate strategy options: strengths with opportunities (SO), strengths with threats (ST), weaknesses with opportunities (WO) and weaknesses with threats (WT). Heinz Weihrich introduced the TOWS matrix in 1982 to make that matching step explicit, so the analysis ends in options rather than lists.
- How many factors should a SWOT have?
- Fewer than most do. Hill and Westbrook found SWOTs averaging over 40 factors, described in general terms and never prioritized. Cap each quadrant at about seven while brainstorming, then keep the top three to five per quadrant, ranked by their effect on the decision at hand. Each factor you keep should be specific and backed by evidence someone could check.
- What are SO, ST, WO and WT strategies?
- They are the four cells of the TOWS matrix. SO strategies use strengths to capture opportunities. ST strategies use strengths to reduce threats. WO strategies pursue opportunities by overcoming or working around weaknesses. WT strategies deal with places where a weakness meets a threat, and often involve defensive moves, partnerships or exits. Each option should cite at least one internal and one external factor.
- When should you use a TOWS matrix?
- Use it when a SWOT has to inform a real decision: a market entry, a portfolio review or the issue list for a strategy offsite. It works best for a single business or question rather than a whole company, and after the external and internal analysis is done, so the factors are evidenced rather than brainstormed.
Sources
- Weihrich, H. (1982). The TOWS Matrix: A Tool for Situational Analysis. Long Range Planning, 15(2), 54-66 (Pergamon). Introduces the TOWS matrix for matching external threats and opportunities with internal weaknesses and strengths; SO, ST, WO and WT strategies.
- Hill, T., & Westbrook, R. (1997). SWOT Analysis: It's Time for a Product Recall. Long Range Planning, 30(1), 46-52. Review of SWOT use in 50 companies in a UK Department of Trade and Industry program: long, general, unprioritized lists whose outputs were not used later.
- Kaplan, R. S., & Norton, D. P. (2008). Mastering the Management System. Harvard Business Review (January 2008). SWOT as the summary of external and internal analysis that surfaces the issues for strategy formulation.
More from Stratrix
“What is stopping a working pilot from reaching production?”
One decision per pack: the framework, a working model, the sourced cases and the board material.
See the pack — $499 →Test a decision, free
Set a live decision against the companies that made it before you.
AcquisitionsThe Distance TestDivestituresThe Divestiture TestDiversificationThe Diversification TestMake or buyThe Make-or-Buy TestAll Access
Every Casebook, three Strategy Packs a seat each year and the Analyst, for teams that face these decisions all year.
$1,999 a year · $499 a seatWhat is included →Weekly email
Stratonomics, every Tuesday
One data story every Tuesday: what happened, what it means, and the figures you can quote. Free.