Open records
5 of 102 records, free, exactly as they appear in the set. 52 more verified records are in the purchased files.
| Company | Fork date | The fork | Options | Choice | Stated rationale | What happened | Judgment analyst | Sources |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23andMe Read the story → verified | 2023-07 | How to renew the GSK relationship when the exclusive discovery term ended |
| Accept non-exclusive license | The exclusive term ended and GSK would not renew on the old terms; the deal became a flat non-exclusive license | 1 year · 2025-03-23 bankruptcy: 23andMe and 11 affiliated debtors filed voluntary Chapter 11 | reversibility low verdict held | 23andMe Holding Co. / SEC EDGAR (2024-02); 23andMe Media Center (2023-10); GSK (GlaxoSmithKline) (2018-07); 23andMe Holding Co. / SEC EDGAR (via PublicNow summary of Form 10-K) (2025); U.S. Bankruptcy Court, Eastern District of Missouri / Kroll Restructuring Administration (2025-03) |
| Alphabet (Google) Read the story → verified | 2024-05 | How to respond to AI answer engines threatening search: absorb AI into Google Search and monetize it, or treat chatbots as the primary threat |
| Absorb AI into Search | Google controls distribution and can place an answer before over a billion users the day it ships, so a better answer is a feature it can add rather than a moat a startup can cross | Latest · 2024-10 AI Overviews reach: expanded to more than 100 countries and over a billion monthly users | reversibility medium verdict held | Google / blog.google (2024-05); Google / blog.google (2024-10); Alphabet Inc. / SEC EDGAR (2025-02); SQ Magazine (citing BrightEdge and Seer Interactive studies) (2026-05) |
| Amazon Alexa / Echo Read the story → verified | 2014-11-06 | Whether to sell the Echo cheaply as a loss leader and recoup profit through downstream voice shopping |
| Razor-and-blades loss leader | Put a microphone in every home so people would reorder products with their voice and Amazon would collect | 5 years · 2025-02 business model change: Amazon launched Alexa+ at $19.99 a month then made it free for every Prime member, retiring the razor-and-blades model | reversibility medium verdict reversed | CNBC / Wikipedia (Amazon Echo) / Fast Company (2014-11); The Wall Street Journal / PopSci / PyMNTS (2024-07); Fortune / Business Insider / Bank of America (via Fortune) (2024-06); Amazon.com, Inc. (2025-02) |
| American Express Read the story → verified | 2014 | Whether to keep the closed loop end-to-end or franchise the small-merchant and international ends to third parties while keeping the data and cardmember |
| Franchise the long tail | The moat was the spend data and captive premium cardmember, not end-to-end control; losing the acquiring relationship costs far less than losing the spend | 5 years · 2024 total revenues and net income: $65.9 billion in total revenues net of interest expense and $10.1 billion in net income | reversibility low verdict held | Multiple processor trade sources (Arrow Payments, Payment Depot, LinkedIn) (2021); BAMS (merchant processor trade publication) (2026-04); American Express Co (AXP) (2016); American Express Co (AXP) (2025-02); Payments Dive (2025-01); American Express Company Investor Relations (2025-01) |
| American Express Read the story → verified | 1958 | Whether to compete on cheap ubiquity or set a premium fee to signal exclusivity |
| Price above as signal | To signal premium positioning — be expensive and exclusive rather than cheap and everywhere | 5 years · 2024 total revenue and net income: FY2024 record revenues of $65.9 billion and net income of $10.1 billion | reversibility low verdict held | Wikipedia / History.com (corroborating) (2025); American Express Company Investor Relations (2025-01); American Express Company / SEC EDGAR (2025) |
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- Fork date at the precision the record supports, never sharper.
- The fork, the options, the choice in the form the company faced them.
- Stated rationale as the company gave it or the record documents it, not our theory.
- Capital committed where the record states it; blank where it does not.
- Outcomes at one, three and five years or latest, each dated and cited.
- Reversibility and verdict as analyst judgments, marked as such.
- Every source, with dates and links, per record and in an appendix.