NIO: ten lost years, and the economy wasn't the reason.

1. From profit to ten straight losses. NIO lost money every year from 2016 to 2025: CN¥110 billion in all.
2. It outgrew its own economy many times over. Revenue rose from CN¥5 billion in 2018 to CN¥87.5 billion in 2025: 17.7 times as much. China's economy, counted the same way in money terms, grew about 55%. Whatever drove it, the economy around it does not account for growth of that size.
3. It wasn't the cycle. The losses began in 2016, a year China economy grew 6.8%. When a company falls while its economy grows, look inside the company first.
4. Three decisions on record. Stratrix has verified three of NIO's big decisions, each with what happened next. The hardest year after: "NIO's Price-War Pledge Collapsed in Weeks — Its 3,172 Swap Stations Are What Hold It Up", with its shares 117 points behind the S&P 500 over the next three years. The best: "NIO Has Been 'About to Die' for Six Years. It Keeps Not Dying. Here's Why", 212 points ahead of the S&P 500 over the next three years.

Financial results

As reported in its annual filings, in CNY. Losses in red.

Stratrix Decision Cases

• 2023NIO's Price-War Pledge Collapsed in Weeks — Its 3,172 Swap Stations Are What Hold It UpReversed · shares −117 pts vs the S&P 500 over 3 years
• 2020NIO Sells You a Car Without the Battery. The Battery Is the Whole Business.Held in part · shares −59 pts vs the S&P 500 over 3 years
• 2020NIO Has Been 'About to Die' for Six Years. It Keeps Not Dying. Here's Why.Stood · shares +212 pts vs the S&P 500 over 3 years