Novo Nordisk built a 100-year moat. Its growth sits on one molecule.
Ozempic did DKK 120.3B in FY2024 sales, more than twice Novo's insulin franchise. But its GLP-1 value share fell from 85.6% to 81.3% in 2024, and generics launched in India in March 2026.
Transcript
Novo Nordisk built its insulin moat over a century. Its growth now sits on a single molecule.
The choice: lean growth on GLP-1 drugs built on one molecule, semaglutide, protected by patents, or rely on scale and know-how in insulin. Novo chose the molecule. Ozempic launched for type 2 diabetes in the U.S. and Canada in February 2018.
It worked. In FY2024, Ozempic alone did DKK 120.3 billion in sales, more than twice Novo's entire insulin franchise.
But a patent moat is shallow. Novo's GLP-1 value share fell from 85.6% in the first quarter of 2024 to 81.3% by the fourth. By the second quarter of 2025, Eli Lilly held roughly 57% of the GLP-1 market. In March 2026, after Novo Nordisk's patent expired in India, at least five local makers launched generic semaglutide, one for as little as 750 rupees a weekly injection.
Novo still holds formulation and device patents in the U.S. into the early 2030s, so the story is not over. The lesson: know which of your moats carries your growth, and when it runs out.
The records behind this video
Every figure in the video comes from this Decision Record, each with its sources.
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