$299Precedent Set · one-time · Excel, JSON, PowerPoint, Word, PDF

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5 of 14 records, free, exactly as they appear in the set. 7 more verified records are in the purchased files.

CompanyFork dateThe forkOptionsChoiceStated rationaleWhat happenedJudgment analystSources
Alphabet (Google)
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2005-07-11Whether Google should acquire Android Inc. to secure access to the mobile computing layer
  • Acquire Android Buy the recently repurposed startup to secure the access layer
  • Stay out of mobile Risk Microsoft or Symbian controlling the device layer
Acquire AndroidFear of being locked out of mobile by Microsoft and Symbian, not foresight about smartphones5 years · 2010
internal assessment of the deal: Google's corporate development chief called Android the company's 'best deal ever'
reversibility low
verdict held
Android Authority (2023-05); DPReview (citing PC World) (2013-04); Wikipedia / Android (operating system) (2026)
Apple
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2020-06-22Keep buying Intel processors for the Mac, or design the Mac's chips in-house
  • Buy from Intel Keep buying best-in-class chips on Intel's roadmap and release cadence
  • Build your own Design the Mac's processors in-house, on Apple's own schedule
Build your own: transition the Mac to Apple siliconControl over the most consequential component, rather than accepting a supplier's schedule and priorities3 years · 2023-06-05
transition completion: The transition completed at WWDC 2023 when Apple silicon reached the Mac Pro
reversibility low
verdict held
Apple Newsroom (2020-06); Apple Newsroom (2005-06); AnandTech (via 9to5Mac) (2020-11); Apple Newsroom (2023-06)
Boeing
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2001-03-21Whether to move headquarters away from the engineers who build planes
  • Move HQ to Chicago Relocate leadership 1,700 miles from the factory floors
  • Keep HQ near engineers Leave leadership in the Seattle area beside operations
Move HQ to ChicagoA separate corporate headquarters would let leadership judge each unit dispassionately, at a distance from the commercial-airplane operations5 years · 2022
headquarters location: Boeing relocated its headquarters again from Chicago to Arlington, Virginia, further from the factory
reversibility low
verdict held
Crain's Chicago Business / Illinois Answers / The Center Square (2001); Contemporaneous reporting (compiled) (2001); U.S. House Committee on Transportation & Infrastructure (2020-09); The Center Square / Reuters (2022)
Google-Android
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2007-11Sell/license Android or give it away free and open-source
  • License Android Keep it proprietary and charge handset makers per-device fees
  • Give it away free Make Android free and open-source to drive ubiquity
Give it away freeGoogle wanted to protect its search business by keeping its services at the default center of mobile, not to be in the OS businessLatest · 2008
first shipping device: Android 1.0 shipped on the T-Mobile G1, the HTC Dream, in 2008
reversibility low
verdict held
Wikipedia / Alphabet M&A list (citing SEC filings) (2025); Android Authority (2023-05)
Hugging Face
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2019Keep building the consumer chatbot, or retire it and make the open-source library the company
  • Keep the chatbot Stay a consumer product with around 100,000 daily users
  • Become the platform Retire the chatbot and maintain the free library and Hub others build on
Become the platform: the chatbot was retired and the free library became the companyThe free library was a position, not a tool: every team pulling a model through it stood on Hugging Face's ground, and a neutral platform earns the trust a rival cannot5 years · 2023-08
financing and valuation: In August 2023 Hugging Face raised $235 million at a $4.5 billion valuation, in a round that included Google, Amazon, Nvidia, Intel, AMD, Qualcomm, and IBM
reversibility low
verdict held
Contrary Research (2023); Wikipedia (2026-07); TechCrunch (2023-08)

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ExcelSortable records, outcomes and sources
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PowerPointOne record per slide, action titles, source lines
WordEditable, with the source appendix
PDFThe reading copy
  • Fork date at the precision the record supports, never sharper.
  • The fork, the options, the choice in the form the company faced them.
  • Stated rationale as the company gave it or the record documents it, not our theory.
  • Capital committed where the record states it; blank where it does not.
  • Outcomes at one, three and five years or latest, each dated and cited.
  • Reversibility and verdict as analyst judgments, marked as such.
  • Every source, with dates and links, per record and in an appendix.

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