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CompanyFork dateThe forkOptionsChoiceStated rationaleWhat happenedJudgment analystSources
Alibaba
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verified
2023-03-28Whether to break Alibaba into six independently listable business groups to unlock value
  • Reorganize and float parts Split into six groups, let five seek outside capital and IPOs
  • Keep the conglomerate intact Remain a single holding company with the core inside
Reorganize and float partsLet public markets price the parts so the visible sum would exceed the conglomerate's discounted whole1 year · 2023-09
Freshippo IPO status: Hong Kong listing postponed on weak appetite for consumer stocks
reversibility high
verdict reversed
U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (Alibaba Group Holding Ltd) (2023-05); CNN Business (2023-03); U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (Alibaba Group Holding Ltd) (2023-11); Alibaba Group Holding Limited (Investor Relations) (2024-03); Radio Free Asia (2024-03)
Amazon
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verified
2000-11Where to place third-party sellers: in a separate destination or on Amazon's own product page
  • Separate seller destination Send third-party sellers to a standalone auction site or storefront tab
  • Third-party on own page Place third-party listings directly on Amazon's product detail page
Third-party on own pageLet third-party sellers compete against Amazon's own retail managers on the very page the buyer has already openedLatest · 2001
monthly gross merchandise sales: more than tripled in its first four months
reversibility low
verdict held
Amazon.com Press Center (2001-03); Amazon.com / Amazon Investor Relations (2015); Amazon.com / Amazon Investor Relations (2015); Marketplace Pulse (2026)
Apple
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verified
2007Whether to build the iPhone to deliberately cannibalize the iPod, Apple's ~40% revenue product
  • Protect the iPod Defend and extend the profitable cash cow
  • Cannibalize with iPhone Build the iPhone to obsolete the standalone iPod
Cannibalize with iPhoneIf you don't cannibalize yourself, someone else will5 years · 2022
iPod product line retirement: the last model finally retired in 2022
reversibility low
verdict held
U.S. SEC (EDGAR) - Apple FY2006 10-K (2006-12); Walter Isaacson, 'Steve Jobs' (biography) (2011); Apple Newsroom (2022-05)
Atari
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verified
1982Whether to make the 5200 backward-compatible with the 2600 or launch it as a separate incompatible line
  • Ship incompatible parallel console Launch the 5200 as a premium line at $299.95 that plays none of the 2600's games
  • Single backward-compatible successor Make the 5200 the one machine that inherits the 2600's library
  • Sunset the 2600 Fold the old platform into the new one and stop developing for it
Ship incompatible parallel consoleAtari positioned the 5200 as a higher-end complement to the 2600, and inter-divisional rivalry drove the deliberate incompatibility3 years · 1985
US video-game revenue: revenue slid from roughly $3.2 billion in 1982 toward under $100 million by 1985
reversibility low
verdict held
Wikipedia (2024); The Silicon Underground (2025-06); Wikipedia (2024)
BlackBerry
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verified
2012-03Whether to take BBM cross-platform onto iPhone and Android, cannibalizing the handset, or keep it locked to BlackBerry devices
  • Take BBM cross-platform Turn BBM into a standalone software franchise on rival platforms
  • Keep BBM handset-locked Protect the device by keeping BBM exclusive to BlackBerry
Keep BBM handset-lockedLeadership could not stomach loosening BBM from the handset because the handset was the empireLatest · 2012-06
quarterly loss and revenue: $518 million loss on $2.8 billion in revenue, shipments down 41%
reversibility low
verdict held
The Globe and Mail (2013-09); TechCrunch (2012-06); BlackBerry Limited / U.S. SEC EDGAR (2013-09)

What is in the set

ExcelSortable records, outcomes and sources
JSONDrop it into your AI workspace
PowerPointOne record per slide, action titles, source lines
WordEditable, with the source appendix
PDFThe reading copy
  • Fork date at the precision the record supports, never sharper.
  • The fork, the options, the choice in the form the company faced them.
  • Stated rationale as the company gave it or the record documents it, not our theory.
  • Capital committed where the record states it; blank where it does not.
  • Outcomes at one, three and five years or latest, each dated and cited.
  • Reversibility and verdict as analyst judgments, marked as such.
  • Every source, with dates and links, per record and in an appendix.

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