Microsoft: growth far beyond its economy.

1. It outgrew its own economy many times over. Revenue rose from $91.2 billion in fiscal 2016 to $332 billion in fiscal 2026: 3.6 times as much. The US economy, counted the same way in money terms, grew about 60%. Whatever drove it, the economy around it does not account for growth of that size.
2. 20 decisions on record. Stratrix has verified 20 of Microsoft's big decisions, each with what happened next. The hardest year after: "Microsoft Paid for Cloud Gaming, Then Gave the Cloud Away to Win the Deal", with its shares 26 points behind the S&P 500 over the next three years. The best: "Game Pass Won the Revenue Bet and Lost the One That Mattered", 142 points ahead of the S&P 500 over the next three years.
3. Profitable every year. Microsoft made money in each of its last eleven fiscal years, from $16.6 billion (fiscal 2018) to $134 billion (fiscal 2026).

Financial results

As reported in its annual filings. Losses in red.

Stratrix Decision Cases

• 2024Sony Won the Console War. Microsoft Decided to Stop Playing It.Too early to call · shares −21 pts vs the S&P 500 over a year
• 2024Microsoft kept Copilot's $30 seat and stacked a metered track for AI agents beside itToo early to call · shares −12 pts vs the S&P 500 over a year
• 2023Microsoft Paid for Cloud Gaming, Then Gave the Cloud Away to Win the DealStood · shares −26 pts vs the S&P 500 over 3 years
• 2023Microsoft Called Its OpenAI Bet 'Immaterial' for 18 Months. That Was the Whole Strategy.Held in part · shares +22 pts vs the S&P 500 over 3 years
• 2022Microsoft's $95-a-Share Activision Bid: A Premium to the Scandal, a Discount to the PeakHeld in part · shares +11 pts vs the S&P 500 over 3 years
• 2019Microsoft Spent $13 Billion to Become OpenAI's Best-Funded Captive CustomerHeld in part · shares +64 pts vs the S&P 500 over 3 years
• 2018From 'Linux Is a Cancer' to the World's Largest Open-Source Owner: Anatomy of Microsoft's Great ReversalStood · shares +91 pts vs the S&P 500 over 3 years
• 2018In 2018 Microsoft dropped 'Windows' from its top executive's title and buried the OS one level downStood · shares +109 pts vs the S&P 500 over 3 years
• 2017Game Pass Won the Revenue Bet and Lost the One That MatteredHeld in part · shares +142 pts vs the S&P 500 over 3 years
• 2016Teams Passed Slack in Daily Users by July 2019 — Before the EU Complaint Was Even FiledHeld in part · shares +102 pts vs the S&P 500 over 3 years
• 2016LinkedIn, GitHub, Azure: Each Microsoft Bet Was the On-Ramp to the NextStood · shares +101 pts vs the S&P 500 over 3 years
• 2014Windows Revenue Rose While Microsoft Grew to $281.7B — a Margin Upgrade Dressed as DisruptionStood · shares +49 pts vs the S&P 500 over 3 years
• 2014Microsoft's CEO search shortlisted six names — then hired the insider it had all alongToo early to call · shares +49 pts vs the S&P 500 over 3 years
• 2014Nadella Took Microsoft From $300B to $3 Trillion — on an Azure Foundation Ballmer ShippedStood · shares +49 pts vs the S&P 500 over 3 years
• 2014Azure Was Built Under Ballmer. Nadella's Genius Was Wiring It Into Everything.Stood
• 2013Ballmer Overrode Microsoft's Board to Buy Nokia; the $7.5 Billion Write-Off Took Two YearsReversed
• 2009Microsoft Handed Yahoo 88% of Search Revenue in 2009 — and Wrote the Step-Ups Into the ContractHeld in part · shares −18 pts vs the S&P 500 over 3 years
• 2001Microsoft's own filings called the Xbox a 'negative margin console' — Windows and Office covered the gapStood · shares −16 pts vs the S&P 500 over 3 years
• 1980Microsoft Won on a $75,000 OS and a Licensing Clause IBM Left UnlockedStood
• 1980The 1980 IBM contract barred IBM from reselling DOS — and left Microsoft free to sell it to everyoneToo early to call