Adobe: growth far beyond its economy.

1. It outgrew its own economy many times over. Revenue rose from $5.9 billion in 2016 to $23.8 billion in fiscal 2025: 4.1 times as much. The US economy, counted the same way in money terms, grew about 60%. Whatever drove it, the economy around it does not account for growth of that size.
2. Leaders came and went. Adobe filed 47 leadership changes since 2016, more than 96% of large service companies (the median is 22). The day after each, its shares moved a median 0.1 points against its sector. The news was rarely news.
3. Six decisions on record. Stratrix has verified six of Adobe's big decisions, each with what happened next. The hardest year after: "Adobe Paid $1 Billion to Walk Away. The Fee Was Cheaper Than the Truth It Bought", with its shares 52 points behind the S&P 500 over the next year. The best: "Only a Near-Monopoly Could Afford Adobe's $348M Subscription Gamble", 72 points ahead of the S&P 500 over the next three years.
4. Profitable every year. Adobe made money in each of its last ten fiscal years, from $1.2 billion (2016) to $7.1 billion (fiscal 2025).

Financial results

As reported in its annual filings. Losses in red.

Stratrix Decision Cases

• 2023Adobe Paid $1 Billion to Walk Away. The Fee Was Cheaper Than the Truth It Bought.Stood · shares −52 pts vs the S&P 500 over a year
• 2023How Adobe Handed the CMA Its Case Against the Figma Deal — Then Paid $1B to Walk AwayToo early to call
• 2013Adobe Rented Out Photoshop, Ate the Revenue Dip — and Faced an FTC Complaint Over Hidden 50% FeesStood · shares +63 pts vs the S&P 500 over 3 years
• 2013Only a Near-Monopoly Could Afford Adobe's $348M Subscription GambleStood · shares +72 pts vs the S&P 500 over 3 years
• 2013Adobe Sold You a Subscription. The Real Product Was the Difficulty of Leaving.Stood · shares +72 pts vs the S&P 500 over 3 years
• 2009Adobe Expanded One Standard at a Time, From PostScript to PDF to a $1.8B Analytics BetStood · shares −47 pts vs the S&P 500 over 3 years