Ford bet on EVs ahead of demand. The profit target moved to 2029.
In 2022 Ford split off Model e with a target of 2 million EVs a year by 2026. Cumulative Model e losses from 2022 to 2025 exceed $16 billion, and EV profitability likely won't happen until 2029.
Transcript
On March 2, 2022, Ford split itself in two. One half, Ford Model e, would build the electric future.
The choice: build electric capacity ahead of demand, or wait for demand to catch up. In 2022, EV adoption looked about to go vertical, and a legacy automaker that sat out the transition risked becoming the next Kodak. Ford chose to build.
Ford put a number on it on stage: 2 million EVs a year by 2026, roughly a third of everything it sold, at a 10% margin.
Model e lost $2.1 billion in 2022, the year it was created. In March 2023, Ford set a goal of an 8% margin for Model e by the end of 2026. In December 2025, Ford took a $19.5 billion pre-tax restructuring charge, including $10.7 billion of Model e impairments and canceled EV programs. Then Ford's finance chief said EV profitability likely won't happen until 2029.
Add it up. Ford's cumulative Model e losses from 2022 to 2025 exceed $16 billion, and Ford reported a 2025 net loss of $8.2 billion.
Ford was not wrong that electric cars mattered. It was early, and capacity built ahead of demand costs money every year demand is late. One case does not prove waiting is safer; the Kodak risk was real. But when you build ahead of demand, write down when you expect demand to arrive, and what you will do if it does not.
The records behind this video
Every figure in the video comes from this Decision Record, each with its sources.
Run this decision
The Money Machine Strategy Pack. “Where does the money actually come from, and who sets the rate it comes in at?” The framework, a model, a deck and the sourced cases, for running the same call on your own business. See the pack, $499 →
