Airbus bet €9.5 billion on hub airports. It delivered 251 A380s.
In December 2000 Airbus launched the A380 at a cost of €9.5 billion, betting on hub airports. It forecast nearly 1,200 very large aircraft by 2022. It delivered 251. Test the forecast, not just the plane.
Transcript
On 19 December 2000, the Airbus board had to decide how the world would fly. What would you have chosen?
Option one: a superjumbo with more than 500 seats and four engines, built for crowded hub airports. Option two: smaller, efficient twins that fly point to point.
Airbus voted for the superjumbo, at a launch cost of €9.5 billion. Its reading: congested mega-airports meant the way to win was carrying more people per slot. Its 2003 forecast projected nearly 1,200 very large aircraft by 2022.
Then came the delays. In October 2006, after €4.8 billion in cost overruns, the A380 break-even point was revised from 270 aircraft to 420.
In the end, Airbus delivered 251 passenger A380s, to 14 customers. On 14 February 2019, after Emirates cut 39 orders, Airbus announced the end of A380 production.
Chief executive Tom Enders put it plainly. No substantial backlog, and so no basis to sustain production.
The plane flew. The forecast did not. When a bet rests on one picture of the future, write down what would prove that picture wrong, and check it every year. One program does not prove big aircraft are a mistake. It shows what a single forecast can cost.
The records behind this video
Every figure in the video comes from this Decision Record, each with its sources.
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