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An order book, a pipeline, a remaining performance obligation, a total of signed reservations: all of it is reported gross, and a gross figure cannot say when it arrives or whether it will. It gets quoted as years of revenue anyway, put in the deck as evidence of safety, and used to justify a plan it may not cover. Three figures would make a backlog comparable to revenue, and almost no company reports them together — not because anybody is hiding them, but because each sits with a different owner: the conversion history with finance, the schedule in the contracts, the margin in the pricing of deals signed years ago. This pack turns them into arithmetic. The reported total at the share that has actually converted gives the honest backlog. Divided by the schedule, or by what the company can physically deliver in a year, whichever is slower, it gives the annual draw — and the delivery limit is usually what binds, which is the finding most companies have not made. That draw set against next year's plan gives the share the backlog covers, and the remainder is revenue that has to be won and is not sold yet. It stops on five conditions: no backlog figure, no historical conversion share, no schedule, nothing stated about what the company can deliver in a year, and no margin.
The test that runs through every file
A backlog is reported gross, and three figures would make it comparable to revenue — the share that has converted before, the schedule it arrives on, and the margin it was signed at.. It is the argument in the deck, it becomes the wizard’s axes, it drives the model’s inputs, and it reappears as lines on the checklist. That is what makes 16 files a product rather than 16 documents.
The model resolves to one number you can negotiate with: The honest backlog — the reported figure at the share that has actually converted. It ships blank and worked, and every input is a named cell rather than a figure buried inside a formula, so the number arrives with its assumptions attached rather than on its own authority.
What is in the Backlog Strategy Pack
- Foundations. The framework: what a backlog is reported as, the three figures that would make it comparable to revenue, the arithmetic, and the five halts.
- Concept deck. Twenty-one slides for a board or audit committee, with nine sourced backlogs and what each does not establish.
- Decision wizard. Eight scored questions returning the band, the weakest answer, and either of the two halt conditions.
- Conversion model. Eleven candidate conversion shares across the columns, the honest backlog, and the share of next year's plan it covers.
- Strategies and tactics. The moves at each of the four positions, what to do when the model halts, and four ways to make the next backlog easier to read.
- Case studies. Nine sourced backlogs — two disclosed the way this pack asks for, one on the wrong side of the ledger, and one that converted at zero.
- Fit worksheet. The single page of record: the basis, the contracted split, the conversion share and schedule, and what it covers.
- Roadmap template. Five phases with gates and owners, the assumptions register, a reporting change and a periodic review line.
- Practitioner manual. Separating contracted from intended, recovering the conversion share, reconstructing the schedule, checking throughput, six failure modes.
- Field checklist. The one-pager that survives outside the binder.
- About the package. What each file does and the order in which to run them.
An honest note on fit
This is a kit for running a decision, not a research report and not a course. It is worth buying if a real decision is in front of you and you would otherwise start from a blank page. It is not worth buying to read.
Worked examples use an explicitly fictional business, labeled on every file that contains one, with numbers tuned to teach rather than to flatter — each worked case is built so that the decision does not simply come out well, and so that what settles it is the test the pack exists to run. A worked example where everything works is a brochure. The price excludes customization, implementation and support, and where the pack reasons beyond its evidence it says so on the page.
Questions
- What is the Backlog Strategy Pack?
- The Backlog Strategy Pack is a decision-support kit for one question: What is your backlog actually worth, and when does it arrive? It contains 16 files — foundations, concept deck, decision wizard, conversion model, strategies and tactics, case studies, fit worksheet, roadmap template, practitioner manual, field checklist, about the package — built around a single organizing test: a backlog is reported gross, and three figures would make it comparable to revenue — the share that has converted before, the schedule it arrives on, and the margin it was signed at.. It is what a leadership team uses to run the decision and leave a record of what they assumed, rather than a report about the topic.
- Who is the Backlog Strategy Pack for?
- Anyone who has to make this call and answer for it: an operator or owner facing the decision, the executive team running it, the board or investor testing the reasoning, or an adviser who would otherwise build the framework from a blank page. It is worth buying when a real decision is in front of you. It is not worth buying to read.
- What is in the Backlog Strategy Pack?
- 16 files in Word, PDF, PowerPoint and Excel: Foundations (Word + PDF) — The framework: what a backlog is reported as, the three figures that would make it comparable to revenue, the arithmetic, and the five halts. Concept deck (PowerPoint + PDF) — Twenty-one slides for a board or audit committee, with nine sourced backlogs and what each does not establish. Decision wizard (Excel) — Eight scored questions returning the band, the weakest answer, and either of the two halt conditions. Conversion model (Excel, blank and worked) — Eleven candidate conversion shares across the columns, the honest backlog, and the share of next year's plan it covers. Strategies and tactics (Word) — The moves at each of the four positions, what to do when the model halts, and four ways to make the next backlog easier to read. Case studies (Word) — Nine sourced backlogs — two disclosed the way this pack asks for, one on the wrong side of the ledger, and one that converted at zero. Fit worksheet (Word, blank and worked) — The single page of record: the basis, the contracted split, the conversion share and schedule, and what it covers. Roadmap template (Word) — Five phases with gates and owners, the assumptions register, a reporting change and a periodic review line. Practitioner manual (Word + PDF) — Separating contracted from intended, recovering the conversion share, reconstructing the schedule, checking throughput, six failure modes. Field checklist (PDF) — The one-pager that survives outside the binder. About the package (PDF) — What each file does and the order in which to run them.
- What number does the Backlog Strategy Pack produce?
- The honest backlog — the reported figure at the share that has actually converted. The model ships blank and worked, and every input is a named cell rather than a figure buried inside a formula, so the number you take into a room arrives with its assumptions attached and can be argued with rather than merely believed.
- How is the Backlog Strategy Pack delivered?
- As a single download of all 16 files, immediately after payment, with the same link sent by email. It can be downloaded 3 times and the link is valid for 30 days. There is nothing to install and no account to keep.
- How much does the Backlog Strategy Pack cost, and is it a subscription?
- $249, one-time. It is not a subscription and there is nothing to cancel. Where the pack is revised within 180 days of your purchase, the new release is yours. The price does not include customization, implementation help or support.
- Are the worked examples real companies?
- The case studies are real, sourced and dated, and each one states what its evidence does not establish. The worked model, wizard and worksheet use an explicitly fictional business, labeled as such on every file that contains one. A worked model needs roughly fifteen populated inputs; for a real company you would have public figures for perhaps four, and the rest would be estimates wearing the authority of a spreadsheet.