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Every declining business has an agreed story, and it is nearly always real: a rate rise, a policy change, a pandemic, a competitor, a regulator. It is also nearly always a trigger rather than a mechanism — the decline started earlier, ran longer, and was visible in the company's own reporting before the named cause existed. This pack measures the difference. It takes what fell before the cause began, fixed by the dates; bounds the cause at its arithmetic ceiling rather than at an estimate of its effect; and returns the residual — the share of the fall the explanation cannot account for even at its most generous — computed a second time from comparable businesses, on evidence entirely independent of your own accounting. It stops on two conditions: the decline has never been dated against the explanation, and nobody has said how large the named cause could possibly be.
The test that runs through every file
The accepted explanation for a decline is nearly always true and nearly always a trigger rather than a mechanism.. It is the argument in the deck, it becomes the wizard’s axes, it drives the model’s inputs, and it reappears as lines on the checklist. That is what makes 16 files a product rather than 16 documents.
The model resolves to one number you can negotiate with: The residual — the share of the fall the explanation cannot carry. It ships blank and worked, and every input is a named cell rather than a figure buried inside a formula, so the number arrives with its assumptions attached rather than on its own authority.
What is in the Residual Strategy Pack
- Foundations. The framework: why the agreed story arrives last, what the residual is, why the ceiling does the work, and the two halts.
- Concept deck. Twenty-one slides for a board or leadership session, with nine sourced declines and what each does not establish.
- Decision wizard. Eight scored questions returning the band, the weakest answer, and either of the two halt conditions.
- Residual model. Eleven candidate sizes for the named cause across the columns, the residual computed two independent ways, and a sweep across defensible start dates.
- Strategies and tactics. The moves at each of the four positions, what to do when the model halts, and four ways to make the residual findable.
- Case studies. Nine sourced declines — seven where the accepted explanation is true and too small to carry the fall.
- Fit worksheet. The single page of record: the explanation, its ceiling, what fell before it existed, the residual, and who owns it.
- Roadmap template. Five phases with gates and owners, the assumptions register, a trigger and a quarterly reporting line.
- Practitioner manual. Choosing the measure, dating the decline, bounding the cause, the peer check, the board paper, six failure modes and their indicators.
- Field checklist. The one-pager that survives outside the binder.
- About the package. What each file does and the order in which to run them.
An honest note on fit
This is a kit for running a decision, not a research report and not a course. It is worth buying if a real decision is in front of you and you would otherwise start from a blank page. It is not worth buying to read.
Worked examples use an explicitly fictional business, labeled on every file that contains one, with numbers tuned to teach rather than to flatter — each worked case is built so that the decision does not simply come out well, and so that what settles it is the test the pack exists to run. A worked example where everything works is a brochure. The price excludes customization, implementation and support, and where the pack reasons beyond its evidence it says so on the page.
Questions
- What is the Residual Strategy Pack?
- The Residual Strategy Pack is a decision-support kit for one question: How much of your decline can the agreed explanation actually account for? It contains 16 files — foundations, concept deck, decision wizard, residual model, strategies and tactics, case studies, fit worksheet, roadmap template, practitioner manual, field checklist, about the package — built around a single organizing test: the accepted explanation for a decline is nearly always true and nearly always a trigger rather than a mechanism.. It is what a leadership team uses to run the decision and leave a record of what they assumed, rather than a report about the topic.
- Who is the Residual Strategy Pack for?
- Anyone who has to make this call and answer for it: an operator or owner facing the decision, the executive team running it, the board or investor testing the reasoning, or an adviser who would otherwise build the framework from a blank page. It is worth buying when a real decision is in front of you. It is not worth buying to read.
- What is in the Residual Strategy Pack?
- 16 files in Word, PDF, PowerPoint and Excel: Foundations (Word + PDF) — The framework: why the agreed story arrives last, what the residual is, why the ceiling does the work, and the two halts. Concept deck (PowerPoint + PDF) — Twenty-one slides for a board or leadership session, with nine sourced declines and what each does not establish. Decision wizard (Excel) — Eight scored questions returning the band, the weakest answer, and either of the two halt conditions. Residual model (Excel, blank and worked) — Eleven candidate sizes for the named cause across the columns, the residual computed two independent ways, and a sweep across defensible start dates. Strategies and tactics (Word) — The moves at each of the four positions, what to do when the model halts, and four ways to make the residual findable. Case studies (Word) — Nine sourced declines — seven where the accepted explanation is true and too small to carry the fall. Fit worksheet (Word, blank and worked) — The single page of record: the explanation, its ceiling, what fell before it existed, the residual, and who owns it. Roadmap template (Word) — Five phases with gates and owners, the assumptions register, a trigger and a quarterly reporting line. Practitioner manual (Word + PDF) — Choosing the measure, dating the decline, bounding the cause, the peer check, the board paper, six failure modes and their indicators. Field checklist (PDF) — The one-pager that survives outside the binder. About the package (PDF) — What each file does and the order in which to run them.
- What number does the Residual Strategy Pack produce?
- The residual — the share of the fall the explanation cannot carry. The model ships blank and worked, and every input is a named cell rather than a figure buried inside a formula, so the number you take into a room arrives with its assumptions attached and can be argued with rather than merely believed.
- How is the Residual Strategy Pack delivered?
- As a single download of all 16 files, immediately after payment, with the same link sent by email. It can be downloaded 3 times and the link is valid for 30 days. There is nothing to install and no account to keep.
- How much does the Residual Strategy Pack cost, and is it a subscription?
- $249, one-time. It is not a subscription and there is nothing to cancel. Where the pack is revised within 180 days of your purchase, the new release is yours. The price does not include customization, implementation help or support.
- Are the worked examples real companies?
- The case studies are real, sourced and dated, and each one states what its evidence does not establish. The worked model, wizard and worksheet use an explicitly fictional business, labeled as such on every file that contains one. A worked model needs roughly fifteen populated inputs; for a real company you would have public figures for perhaps four, and the rest would be estimates wearing the authority of a spreadsheet.