About the The Counterfactual Casebook
What is the move a company didn't make? Why do companies pass on the deal, the market or the product that later defines the industry? The knowledge of these strategies will help you glean insights, inspiration and actionable ideas. The The Counterfactual Casebook comprises 53 verified decision records with dated outcomes from AMD, Bayer, BlackBerry, Berkshire Hathaway, eBay, RadioShack, Theranos, IBM and 37 more.
Every record follows the same structure, which is what makes the casebook useful rather than merely interesting. You see when the fork came, what was on the table, what the company chose and the reason it gave, what it committed, and what happened at one, three and five years. Every fact is cited to its source, and where we offer a judgment, it is labeled as one. Across the 53 records, which span 1975 to 2024, 51 carry dated outcomes; 32 of the decisions held, 13 were reversed, 6 held in part, and 2 are still too early to call.
Why it is worth your time
The deals not done and the markets not entered rarely get an announcement, which is why they are so hard to study and so valuable when you can. These records rebuild the moment a company could have bought, built or entered and chose not to, with the reasoning it gave at the time and what the pass turned out to cost or save. If your team is about to say no to something, this is how other no's have ended.
Who reaches for it
Strategy and corporate development teams reach for it when a memo or a board paper needs real precedents rather than anecdotes. Consultants and advisors use it to put the counterfactual examples with dated outcomes on a slide, with a source line under every number. Founders and operators facing the same fork want to see how it went for the companies that chose each way. And faculty, analysts and researchers use it as a structured, cited dataset instead of a reading list.
What it saves you
Assembling comparable precedents by hand is slow work. You have to find each decision, date it, read the filings and the coverage, pull out the same fields every time, and check every number before it goes near a slide. Here is what the casebook stands in for, and what each alternative tends to cost.
| Option | What you get | What it costs |
|---|---|---|
| Do it yourself | Your own research, one decision at a time, with fields that differ from record to record. | Three to four hours a record, so roughly 186 hours for 53 records. |
| An analyst-firm subscription | Sector benchmarks and briefings. Decisions turn up as examples inside reports, rarely as records with outcomes. | An annual seat, commonly in the five figures, for coverage you cannot buy one decision type at a time. |
| A consulting workstream | A team assembles precedents for your case, once, on their timeline. | Weeks, and fees that start where this casebook's price ends by several orders of magnitude. |
| The The Counterfactual Casebook | 53 verified, comparable records with dated outcomes and every source, in five formats, kept current. | $299, once. Less than an hour of any of the alternatives. |
How people use it
In the memo, you cite the records whose fork matches yours, outcomes and sources included, straight from the Word appendix. In the room, the PowerPoint gives you one record per slide with an action title and a source line, ready to drop into your own deck. In the model, you sort the Excel by verdict, horizon or capital committed and watch where the pattern breaks. And in your AI workspace, you load the JSON as vetted context, so the assistant reasons from verified records instead of inventing them.
What is in the download
A sample record
One record, free, exactly as it appears in the casebook. The other 52 verified records are in the purchased files.
| Company | Fork date | The fork | Options | Choice | Stated rationale | What happened | Judgment analyst | Sources |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adobe Read the story → verified | 2023 | Whether to pay $1B to walk away from the Figma deal or fight two regulators to close it |
| Pay fee and terminate | There was no clear path to receive necessary regulatory approvals from the European Commission and the UK CMA | No dated outcome stated yet | reversibility low verdict too-early | U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission / Adobe Inc. (2023-12); CNBC (2023-12) |
Who is in this casebook
53 verified records across these companies. Each record carries the fork and its date, the options, the choice, the stated rationale, the outcomes and the judgments, with every source named.
- Adobe
- Alphabet (Google)
- Amazon
- AMD ×2
- Apple
- AstraZeneca
- Bayer
- Berkshire Hathaway ×2
- BlackBerry
- Blockbuster
- BuzzFeed
- Chevron
- Disney
- eBay ×2
- Electronic Arts
- Goldman Sachs
- IBM ×2
- Intel
- Kroger ×2
- Lyft
- McDonald's
- Meta
- Microsoft ×3
- Milton Hershey School Trust
- Nike
- Nvidia ×2
- Oracle
- Pepsi
- Quibi
- RadioShack
- Sears
- Silicon Valley Bank
- Snap
- Sony
- Tesla
- Theranos
- Toys R Us
- Uber
- UBS
- Verizon
- Vodafone
- Walgreens
- Walmart
Every field, in every record
- Fork date at the precision the record supports, never sharper.
- The fork, the options, the choice in the form the company faced them.
- Stated rationale as the company gave it or the record documents it, not our theory.
- Capital committed where the record states it; blank where it does not.
- Outcomes at one, three and five years or latest, each dated and cited.
- Reversibility and verdict as analyst judgments, marked as such.
- Every source, with dates and links, per record and in an appendix.
Questions
- What do I actually get in the The Counterfactual Casebook?
- 53 verified decision records of the counterfactual decisions from AMD, Bayer, BlackBerry, Berkshire Hathaway, eBay, RadioShack and 39 more. Each one tells you when the fork came, what was on the table, what the company chose and why, what it committed, and what happened at one, three and five years, with every source named. You get it as Excel, JSON, PowerPoint, Word and PDF, plus the strategy templates for this decision type.
- How do I know the records are accurate?
- Every record is drawn only from the story it comes from and that story's sources; nothing is added from memory. Every fact carries a citation and a verbatim excerpt, and a number, date or quote the story does not contain fails a mechanical check. A second model from a different vendor then reads the record against the story, a third arbitrates any disagreement, and only records that pass all of it make the casebook.
- Why not research the counterfactual examples myself, or ask an AI?
- You can, and it takes three to four hours per decision to find it, date it, read the filings and check the numbers, so 53 of them is roughly 186 hours. An AI is fluent on what a company announced and unreliable on what happened three years later. The casebook is $299, once, and every record has already been through the same fields and the same checks, which is what makes the set comparable.
- Is this a subscription?
- No. A casebook is a one-time purchase. When a story a record rests on changes, the record is re-verified and the casebook re-issued, and you get the new release. If you want every casebook kept current, the library license does that for a flat annual fee.