Two companies built capacity ahead of demand. Only one is being paid for it.

Two companies built big capacity before demand arrived. One looks like a plan coming together. The other is watching the bet drink its cash.

In June 2012, Diageo committed roughly £1 billion to expand its Scotch capacity by 30 to 40% and build new warehousing. In October 2022, Hyundai broke ground in Georgia on a $7.6 billion plant for up to 500,000 electric and hybrid vehicles a year, with a $4.3 billion battery venture next door.

Diageo's reason: Scotch net sales had grown 50% over the prior five years, and it bet demand would keep climbing. Its whisky is held in barrels for three years and, in some cases, more than 70.

Hyundai's plan arrived early. In 2023 it sold roughly 46,917 dedicated Ioniq EVs in the United States, and with Kia it passed Ford and GM for second place in U.S. EV sales, behind Tesla. Full production in Georgia began in October 2024, ahead of the original plan.

Diageo's maturing inventories reached $7.8 billion by fiscal 2024, up more than 42% in five years. But in fiscal 2025 its net sales were flat at $20.2 billion, net debt was $21.9 billion, and net debt hit 3.4 times adjusted EBITDA, outside its own target range. In September 2025, Diageo halted production at Balcones, George Dickel and Teaninich.

Neither story is finished. Hyundai's first Georgia-built Ioniq 5s drew a recall in July 2025. The lesson for anyone sizing capacity: ask not only whether demand will come, but how long you can carry the cost if it comes late.