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CompanyFork dateThe forkOptionsChoiceStated rationaleWhat happenedJudgment analystSources
Activision Blizzard
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verified
2022-01-18Should Activision accept Microsoft's acquisition offer that rested on two franchises leaning on platforms it didn't own?
  • Accept Microsoft acquisition Sell to Microsoft for $95.00 per share, moving the platform toll booth in-house.
  • Stay independent Remain independent, leaning on two franchises whose mobile revenue flows through Apple and Google.
Accept Microsoft acquisitionThe premium was paid for two franchises and for moving the toll booth in-house under Microsoft's roof, since 38% of revenue passed through Apple and Google that Activision couldn't negotiate away.1 year · 2023-09-26
regulatory review: The FTC authorized an administrative complaint against the merger, which was withdrawn and returned to adjudication multiple times through at least September 26, 2023.
reversibility low
verdict too-early
Activision Blizzard / SEC EDGAR 8-K (2022-01); Activision Blizzard / SEC EDGAR (2023-02); Federal Trade Commission (2023-09)
Activision Blizzard
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verified
2016-02-23How to reach the mobile audience: buy King or build a mobile business
  • Buy King Acquire Candy Crush maker to gain a mobile audience
  • Build mobile in-house Grow into the mobile adjacency with own studios
Buy KingAudiences are slow to build, so buy the company that already owns the mobile audience rather than grow into it5 years · 2022
GAAP net revenues: fell from $8.80 billion in 2021 to $7.53 billion in 2022, a 14% decline
reversibility low
verdict held
U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission / Activision Blizzard (2016); U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission / Activision Blizzard (2015-11); Variety (2023-10); U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission / Activision Blizzard (2023-02)
Adobe
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verified
2009-10Whether to acquire Omniture to own the web-analytics data layer atop its creative and web-publishing tools
  • Buy Omniture analytics Acquire the web-analytics workflow to measure engagement
  • Stay in creative tools Remain focused on design and web-authoring software
Buy Omniture analyticsOmniture measured engagement on the websites Adobe's tools now built, so Adobe already owned the pixels and now owned the data about who saw them3 years · 2012
subscription binding across arcs: By 2012 Creative Cloud subscriptions tied creative tools, document workflows, and marketing analytics to a single login for the same enterprise customer
reversibility low
verdict held
U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission — Adobe Systems Inc. Form 8-K (2009-10); U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission — Adobe Systems Inc. Form 8-K (FY2012 Q3 and Q4 earnings releases) (2012)
Alphabet (Google)
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verified
2005Whether to diversify away from advertising or acquire the next attention surfaces (phones and video) to widen the ad funnel
  • Acquire attention surfaces Buy Android and YouTube to widen the ad funnel
  • Diversify beyond ads Build new revenue engines away from advertising
Acquire attention surfacesOwning where attention was moving (phones and video) kept the ad machine from being locked out of the next platform5 years · 2023
Google Services operating profit: the same Services segment that earned nearly $96 billion in operating profit in 2023
reversibility low
verdict held
VentureBeat / Android Authority (2022); SEC / Google Inc. (2006-10); StatsUp / Analyzify (2025); SEC / Alphabet Inc. (2024-01); SEC / Alphabet Inc. (2024-01)
Alphabet (Google)
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verified
2005-08Whether to acquire and give away a mobile OS (Android) to prevent a rival from owning the search default
  • Acquire Android OS Buy and give away a mobile OS to protect the search default
  • Stay a search box only Remain dependent on others' devices for query distribution
Acquire Android OSTo prevent whoever owned the dominant mobile OS from controlling the search default and swapping Google out5 years · 2023
Search & Other revenue concentration: Search and Other alone was about $175 billion of revenue — roughly 57% of the entire company
reversibility low
verdict held
Android Authority (2023-05); Bullfincher (derived from Alphabet SEC filings) (2026-05)

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ExcelSortable records, outcomes and sources
JSONDrop it into your AI workspace
PowerPointOne record per slide, action titles, source lines
WordEditable, with the source appendix
PDFThe reading copy
  • Fork date at the precision the record supports, never sharper.
  • The fork, the options, the choice in the form the company faced them.
  • Stated rationale as the company gave it or the record documents it, not our theory.
  • Capital committed where the record states it; blank where it does not.
  • Outcomes at one, three and five years or latest, each dated and cited.
  • Reversibility and verdict as analyst judgments, marked as such.
  • Every source, with dates and links, per record and in an appendix.

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