Intel's defining moves.
The defining strategic moves at Intel — each one explained and grounded in the record.
The Counterfactual · Decision Forks
Intel Didn't Lose Its Lead in a Boardroom. It Lost It on a Learning Curve.
Everyone blames the iPhone Intel turned down. The real wound was structural: while TSMC ran billions of mobile chips and got better at making them, Intel defended fat PC margins — and by 2024 its foundry bled $13.4 billion in a single year.
8 min
The Vertical Integration · Vertical Integration
Intel Spent $95 Billion to Become Its Own Customer. Then It Fired the Man Who Promised It Would Work.
IDM 2.0 was sold as a trillion-dollar foundry comeback. The real numbers: roughly $95 billion of capex over four years, a $13 billion foundry loss in 2024, a CHIPS award quietly cut to $7.86 billion, and a CEO the board pushed out.
8 min
The Counterfactual · Decision Forks
Intel Could Have Owned 15% of OpenAI for $1 Billion. The Real Reason It Said No Isn't the One You've Heard.
In 2017 Intel could have bought a 15% stake in OpenAI for $1 billion. It walked. The popular version blames one CFO's AI skepticism - but the deal had a second killer: Intel's own data-center unit refused to build chips at cost.
8 min
The Cannibalization Choice · Cannibalization Choice
Intel Did the Math on the iPhone and Said No. The Math Was Right.
Intel is remembered for missing mobile out of blindness. It wasn't blind - it sold its ARM business for $600M to protect fat x86 margins, exactly as the textbook says you should. Then the forecast it trusted was off by 100x.
8 min