The decisions that made it
The Counterfactual · Decision Forks
Microsoft Paid for Cloud Gaming, Then Gave the Cloud Away to Win the Deal
The '$69 billion' Microsoft-Activision deal was filed at $68.7B and closed at $75.4B. And to get there, Microsoft handed Activision's 15-year cloud-streaming rights to Ubisoft - surrendering the exact synergy that justified the price.
8 min
The Adjacency Expansion · Growth & Portfolio
Activision Didn't Grow Into New Markets. It Bought Its Way In — Twice.
The story is that Activision leveraged Call of Duty into a gaming empire. The deals tell another: a 2008 reverse merger, a $5.9B mobile buy at a discount to King's IPO, a $46M distressed esports grab — and a $68.7B exit that wasn't even its own.
8 min
The Adjacency Expansion · Growth & Portfolio
Activision Didn't Milk Two Franchises. It Bet the Whole Company on Them.
The popular knock on Activision is creative exhaustion. The real risk is in its own filings: FY2022 revenue fell to $7.53B, operating income dropped 49%, and Apple and Google together took 38% off the top - a model where two games carry everything and the platforms set the toll.
8 min
The Crisis Response · Decision Forks
Activision Paid $107 Million to Three Different Regulators. None of Them Agreed on What Went Wrong.
Activision Blizzard didn't have one scandal. It had a governance system that hid misconduct from its board, its investors, and three separate regulators - who fought each other on the way to $107 million in settlements that, read together, expose the real failure.
8 min