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Turnaround plans are lists, and every item on a list adds something or costs less. Ask of each line whether it reduces revenue this year and in most plans the answer is no every time — which makes the document a cost program wearing a turnaround's name, because every recovery in this pack's sourced set gave up revenue it already had. This pack counts what the plan surrenders, converts a list nobody can disagree with into a claim somebody can be wrong about, and separates the year reported revenue comes back from the later year the plan pays — because only the first is being watched. It stops on two conditions: nothing in the plan reduces this year's revenue, and nobody has asked how many years of a worse number this company will sit through.
What is the Turnaround Strategy Pack
The Turnaround Strategy Pack is a complete decision-support kit for one question: is this plan actually a turnaround, and can it be finished? It is built around one organizing claim: a turnaround that gives up nothing is a cost program wearing a turnaround's name. Sixteen files carry it: the foundations, a concept deck, a scored decision wizard, a surrender model blank and worked, the moves at each position, nine sourced turnarounds, a fit worksheet, a roadmap template, a practitioner manual, a field checklist, and an orientation page.
The test that runs through every file
Whether any line in the plan reduces this year's revenue. It is the argument in the deck, it becomes the wizard’s axes, it drives the model’s inputs, and it reappears as lines on the checklist. That is what makes 16 files a product rather than 16 documents.
The model resolves to one number you can negotiate with: The break-even replacement multiple — what each dollar the plan gives up has to come back as. It ships blank and worked, and every input is a named cell rather than a figure buried inside a formula, so the number arrives with its assumptions attached rather than on its own authority.
Why most turnaround plans cannot be evaluated
A list of initiatives cannot be wrong. Each item is plausible, none carries a testable claim, and the document as a whole asserts only that things will improve. Nothing in it can be disagreed with, which is why these plans are approved and then quietly abandoned.
This pack produces the two figures that make one falsifiable: the surrender ratio, which is the share of this year's revenue the plan removes, and the break-even replacement multiple, which is what each surrendered dollar has to come back as for the plan to beat doing nothing. Put the second beside what the plan actually assumes and the board conversation changes shape in one line.
What is in the Turnaround Strategy Pack
- Foundations. The framework: the surrender ratio, the break-even multiple, the two recovery years, the runway, and the two halts.
- Concept deck. Twenty-two slides for the board or leadership session, with the sourced turnarounds and what each does not establish.
- Decision wizard. Eight scored questions returning the band, the weakest answer, and either of the two halt conditions.
- Surrender model. Ten years of the plan against doing nothing, the break-even replacement multiple, the trough and both recovery years.
- Strategies and tactics. The moves at each of three positions, four ways to buy runway, and five that look like a turnaround and are not.
- Case studies. Nine sourced turnarounds read through what each gave up — from a halved parts catalog to a company that surrendered nothing.
- Fit worksheet. The single page of record: the surrender, the multiple, the trough, the runway, and who may stop it.
- Roadmap template. Five phases with gates and owners, the assumptions register, stop criteria and a quarterly reporting line.
- Practitioner manual. Counting the surrender, getting the runway, the board paper, six failure modes and the indicators that show first.
- Field checklist. The one-pager that survives outside the binder.
- About the package. What each file does and the order in which to run them.
Who the Turnaround Strategy Pack is for
An executive team with a recovery plan in front of the board next month; a chief financial officer who has been asked to fund four years of investment and has never been asked how many years there are; a chair who has seen two plans start and stop and wants the third to be different; an independent director reading a document that cannot be disagreed with; an incoming chief executive deciding what to surrender in the window where surrendering is still attributable to a predecessor; and the adviser who would otherwise start from a blank page. It is worth buying when a real decision is in front of you. It is not worth buying to read.
An honest note on fit
This is a kit for running a decision, not a research report and not a course. Worked examples use an explicitly fictional company with numbers tuned to teach rather than to flatter. In the worked case the plan is good and gets replaced anyway: it gives up 18% of revenue, each surrendered dollar has to come back as $1.89 and the plan assumes $2.30, which makes it worth $63m more than doing nothing — but reported revenue does not return to today's level until year five and the board has three. That is the finding, and it is the one the arithmetic alone will not give you.
Two limits are stated on the page rather than worked around. No surrender transfers: what is worth giving up is specific to your business at this moment, and no case in the pack gives you a number. And the case set is selected on visibility — turnarounds become documented when they are dramatic, so a company that quietly gave something up and recovered leaves no record at all.
This decision, in two minutes
Short videos on companies that faced it, built from the casebooks this pack draws on.
The free guide to this decision
How companies ran this decision, case by case, and the method the pack is built on. Read the guide →
Questions about the Turnaround Strategy Pack
- Is this the same as a restructuring or cost-reduction toolkit?
- No, and the distinction is the whole pack. A cost program removes expense without removing revenue; it buys a few quarters at the price of capability while the decline continues underneath. A turnaround gives up revenue the company already has. Both are legitimate documents and only one changes the trajectory. The first thing this pack does is establish which one you are holding, and in most plans the answer is a surprise.
- What number does the model produce?
- The break-even replacement multiple: what each dollar of revenue the plan gives up has to come back as, at the new margin, for the turnaround to beat doing nothing. It is one subtraction and one division once the surrender is counted. The model also returns the trough, the year reported revenue comes back to today's level, and the separate and later year the plan pulls ahead on cumulative value — because those are different years and only the first is being watched.
- Our plan is already approved. Is it too late?
- No, and this is the most common position. Everything in the first two phases can be done on an approved plan in a week: count what it gives up, get the runway in writing, and put the required multiple beside the assumed one. If the plan surrenders nothing, better to know now. If it surrenders something and the recovery lands outside the runway, the schedule is negotiable in a way the arithmetic is not — and re-cutting the phasing early is far cheaper than starting again in year three.
- Are the case studies real companies?
- Yes. Nine sourced turnarounds: Lego, Ford, Tesco, the New York Times, Best Buy, Domino's, Intel, Burberry, and Apple. Each is dated, read through what each one gave up, and each states what its evidence does not establish. Two of the nine did not survive long enough to find out and are in the set on purpose, and the ninth is there because it does not fit the framework at all. The worked model, wizard, and worksheet use an explicitly fictional company, labeled as such on every file.
- What if no one has told us how long we have?
- Then the pack stops, and that is deliberate. It is the second of two halt conditions, and both the wizard and the model refuse to produce a headline result without it. The manual sets out the three people to ask, what a bad answer sounds like from each, and why the runway is the smallest of the three answers rather than the average: the CFO on cash and covenants, the chair on the board's patience, and investor relations on the register. It is a morning's work.
- Is this a subscription?
- No. It is a one-time purchase of a single-organization license, with no seat limit inside your organization and nothing to cancel.
- What is the Turnaround Strategy Pack?
- The Turnaround Strategy Pack is a decision-support kit for one question: Is this plan a turnaround, and can it be finished? It contains 16 files — foundations, concept deck, decision wizard, surrender model, strategies and tactics, case studies, fit worksheet, roadmap template, practitioner manual, field checklist, about the package — built around a single organizing test: whether any line in the plan reduces this year's revenue. It is what a leadership team uses to run the decision and leave a record of what they assumed, rather than a report about the topic.
- Who is the Turnaround Strategy Pack for?
- Anyone who has to make this call and answer for it: an operator or owner facing the decision, the executive team running it, the board or investor testing the reasoning, or an adviser who would otherwise build the framework from a blank page. It is worth buying when a real decision is in front of you. It is not worth buying to read.
- What is in the Turnaround Strategy Pack?
- 16 files in Word, PDF, PowerPoint and Excel: Foundations (Word + PDF) — The framework: the surrender ratio, the break-even multiple, the two recovery years, the runway, and the two halts. Concept deck (PowerPoint + PDF) — Twenty-two slides for the board or leadership session, with the sourced turnarounds and what each does not establish. Decision wizard (Excel) — Eight scored questions returning the band, the weakest answer, and either of the two halt conditions. Surrender model (Excel, blank and worked) — Ten years of the plan against doing nothing, the break-even replacement multiple, the trough and both recovery years. Strategies and tactics (Word) — The moves at each of three positions, four ways to buy runway, and five that look like a turnaround and are not. Case studies (Word) — Nine sourced turnarounds read through what each gave up — from a halved parts catalog to a company that surrendered nothing. Fit worksheet (Word, blank and worked) — The single page of record: the surrender, the multiple, the trough, the runway, and who may stop it. Roadmap template (Word) — Five phases with gates and owners, the assumptions register, stop criteria and a quarterly reporting line. Practitioner manual (Word + PDF) — Counting the surrender, getting the runway, the board paper, six failure modes and the indicators that show first. Field checklist (PDF) — The one-pager that survives outside the binder. About the package (PDF) — What each file does and the order in which to run them.
- How is the Turnaround Strategy Pack delivered?
- As a single download of all 16 files, immediately after payment, with the same link sent by email. It can be downloaded 3 times and the link is valid for 30 days. There is nothing to install and no account to keep.