$299Precedent Set · one-time · Excel, JSON, PowerPoint, Word, PDF

This set goes on sale at 12 verified records. 10 verified so far. Leave your email and we will tell you when it is ready.

Open records

5 of 32 records, free, exactly as they appear in the set. 5 more verified records are in the purchased files.

CompanyFork dateThe forkOptionsChoiceStated rationaleWhat happenedJudgment analystSources
Airbnb
Read the story →
verified
2020-03In the guest-vs-host conflict, protect guest trust or host trust?
  • Protect guest trust Override host terms and refund guests in full
  • Protect host trust Honor host cancellation policies and payouts
Protect guest trustThe cycle runs on guest trust; a guest burned by one bad stay distrusts the next ten3 years · 2023
host earnings: hosts earned more than $57 billion in 2023 alone
reversibility low
verdict held
CNBC (2020-11); SEC / Airbnb, Inc. (2024-08); Airbnb, Inc. Investor Relations (2024-02)
Alibaba
Read the story →
verified
2011Whether to keep Alipay inside Alibaba Group or separate it out under founder control to clear the regulatory path
  • Keep Alipay inside group Retain ownership of the payment ledger, data and compounding credit engine
  • Separate Alipay to founders Transfer Alipay to Ma and co-founders to secure a clean payment license
Separate Alipay to foundersThe transfer was justified as regulatory: a payment license might be denied to companies tangled in foreign-investor VIE structures, so Alipay had to be made domestically cleanLatest · 2011
Yahoo's stake value in Alipay: reduced by more than 60%
reversibility low
verdict held
U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission / Yahoo! Inc. (2011-05); Harvard Business Law Review (2021); Wikipedia / Ant Group (2024)
Apple
Read the story →
verified
2020-12Whether to keep the flat 30% commission or reduce the headline rate for most developers while defending it against smaller players.
  • Keep flat 30% rate Charge every developer the standard 30% commission.
  • Cut rate for most developers Reduce to 15% for small developers while retaining 30% for high-revenue publishers.
Cut rate for most developersApple has been quietly shaving the headline rate because the 30% was the part it could not defend.3 years · 2024
Services revenue: Apple's FY2024 Services revenue hit $96.2 billion - up 13% in a year - at a 73.9% gross margin
reversibility low
verdict held
Apple Inc. — Apple Developer Documentation / App Store Connect (2023); Apple Inc. — Apple Developer (2024); Apple Inc. — Apple Newsroom (2020-11); AppleInsider (2016-06); U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission / Apple Inc. (2024-11)
DoorDash
Read the story →
verified
2018-08-08Whether to give away per-order delivery margin through a paid subscription to buy frequency and retention
  • Launch paid subscription giveaway Waive delivery fees for members to grow frequency and retention
  • Keep charging full per-order fees Preserve per-order margin on every delivery
Launch paid subscription giveawayMembers retain better and order more frequently than non-members, so surrendering per-order margin buys frequency and retention5 years · 2025
Average order frequency: reached an all-time high in Q2 2025
reversibility low
verdict held
DoorDash / PR Newswire (2018-08); DoorDash, Inc. / SEC EDGAR (2025-02); DoorDash, Inc. / SEC EDGAR (2025-02); DoorDash, Inc. / SEC EDGAR (2025-02); Earnest Analytics / Consumer Edge (2025-02); DoorDash Investor Relations (2025-08)
Mastercard
Read the story →
verified
2006-05-25Whether to convert the bank-owned cooperative into a public company via IPO
  • Go public via IPO Convert the cooperative into a public company owned by shareholders.
  • Remain a bank cooperative Keep the network owned by its member financial institutions.
Go public via IPOMembers voted overwhelmingly in favor of the offering, framed as a modernization of the network's structure5 years · 2024-06
Proposed follow-on settlement rejected: a proposed up to $30 billion follow-on settlement was rejected by the court in June 2024
reversibility low
verdict held
Wikipedia / Britannica (corroborating secondary sources; primary is the Mastercard S-1 SEC filing) (2024); U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission / Mastercard Incorporated (2025-02); U.S. District Court, Eastern District of New York / Wikipedia (case record summary) (2023-03); The Hill (2024-06)

What is in the set

ExcelSortable records, outcomes and sources
JSONDrop it into your AI workspace
PowerPointOne record per slide, action titles, source lines
WordEditable, with the source appendix
PDFThe reading copy
  • Fork date at the precision the record supports, never sharper.
  • The fork, the options, the choice in the form the company faced them.
  • Stated rationale as the company gave it or the record documents it, not our theory.
  • Capital committed where the record states it; blank where it does not.
  • Outcomes at one, three and five years or latest, each dated and cited.
  • Reversibility and verdict as analyst judgments, marked as such.
  • Every source, with dates and links, per record and in an appendix.