$299Precedent Set · one-time · Excel, JSON, PowerPoint, Word, PDF

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CompanyFork dateThe forkOptionsChoiceStated rationaleWhat happenedJudgment analystSources
Alphabet (Google)
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verified
2015-08Whether to restructure Google into Alphabet, walling off the ad cash engine from the moonshot cash burn
  • Restructure into Alphabet Wall off Google Services from Other Bets so the subsidy is visible
  • Keep blended structure Report Search and moonshots inside one number, spending stays invisible
Restructure into AlphabetTo give more management scale for unrelated businesses and to let shareholders see cash leaking from the ad business into long-shot ventures5 years · 2024
Google Services operating income vs Other Bets loss: Google Services operating income was $121.3 billion; Other Bets lost about $4.4 billion
reversibility low
verdict held
Wikipedia / Larry Page (citing Google's official blog post of August 10, 2015) (2015-08); CIO / IDG (2015); Bloomberg Opinion (2021-05); Alphabet Inc. (2025-02)
Amazon
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verified
2003Whether to build a data-center competency into a sellable cloud service, funding patience for thin retail
  • Build cloud as a service Externalize data-center competency as a sellable AWS offering
  • Keep infrastructure internal Use the data-center skill only to run Amazon's own operations
Build cloud as a serviceAWS was a deliberately built competency whose high margins let Amazon run retail thin on purpose for years5 years · 2024
North America retail operating income: $25.0 billion of operating income at a 6.44% margin
reversibility low
verdict held
GeekWire (2026-03); TechCrunch (2016-07); Amazon.com, Inc. (2025-02); stock-analysis-on.net (2026-02)
Berkshire Hathaway
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verified
1967-03Whether to buy an insurer to use its float as investable capital rather than treat it as a regulatory necessity
  • Buy insurer, invest float Acquire National Indemnity and treat its float as investable capital.
  • Park float in bonds Treat float as a regulatory necessity held in safe bonds.
Buy insurer, invest floatThe gap between collecting premiums and paying claims was a borrowing facility the world had failed to value, providing cheap leverage to fund investing5 years · 2024
Underwriting gain: $9.02 billion underwriting gain across all insurance operations in 2024, after ~$1.2 billion in Helene and Milton claims
reversibility low
verdict held
Wikipedia / Wikimedia Foundation (2024); Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (1997); Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (2018-02); Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (2025-02); Reinsurance News (2025-02)
Comcast
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verified
2024-11Should Comcast spin off its declining cable networks while keeping the broadband engine funding its streaming bet?
  • Spin off cable networks Cut loose legacy cable channels and keep NBC, Peacock, studios, parks.
  • Keep the full empire Retain all cable networks under one roof and continue cross-subsidy.
Spin off cable networksAmputate the cable channels most exposed to cord-cutting so broadband cash could concentrate on the streaming bet Comcast still believed in.1 year · 2026
Peacock subscribers and loss: reached 46 million paying subscribers while posting a $432 million quarterly loss
reversibility low
verdict held
NBCUniversal / Comcast Corporation (2024-11); U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission / Comcast Corporation (2025-03); Comcast Corporation Investor Relations (2026-01); The Hollywood Reporter (2026-04)
CVS Health
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verified
2018Should CVS acquire Aetna to become a vertically integrated diversified health company?
  • Acquire Aetna insurer Buy an insurer to build a vertically integrated health giant.
  • Stay a pharmacy-plus-PBM Remain a drugstore chain with its Caremark PBM.
Acquire Aetna insurerTo become a vertically integrated health company combining insurance, pharmacy, and care delivery under one roof.5 years · 2024
Total operating income: fell 38% to $8.5 billion, dragged by the insurance arm
reversibility low
verdict partial
CVS Health Corporation / SEC EDGAR (2025-02); CVS Health Corporation Investor Relations / PR Newswire (2025-02); CVS Health Corporation Investor Relations (2025-02)

What is in the set

ExcelSortable records, outcomes and sources
JSONDrop it into your AI workspace
PowerPointOne record per slide, action titles, source lines
WordEditable, with the source appendix
PDFThe reading copy
  • Fork date at the precision the record supports, never sharper.
  • The fork, the options, the choice in the form the company faced them.
  • Stated rationale as the company gave it or the record documents it, not our theory.
  • Capital committed where the record states it; blank where it does not.
  • Outcomes at one, three and five years or latest, each dated and cited.
  • Reversibility and verdict as analyst judgments, marked as such.
  • Every source, with dates and links, per record and in an appendix.

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