ASML was told the door to China would close. It sold until it did.
In 2023 ASML kept selling DUV machines to China ahead of dated export controls. China was 41% of its net system sales in 2023 and 49% in Q2 2024, before falling to 29% for 2024.
Transcript
In 2023, ASML knew export controls on China were coming. They had future effective dates.
ASML could keep shipping its DUV lithography machines to China until the rules bit. Or it could hold back voluntarily, to match what US policy intended. What would you have done?
ASML kept selling. Dutch policy was country-neutral and judged sales case by case. And Chinese buyers front-loaded their orders.
China was 41% of ASML's net system sales in 2023. In Q2 2024 it reached 49%, its highest ever. For full-year 2024, it fell back to 29%.
Even so, in 2024 ASML sold nearly $3 billion of equipment and services to Chinese entities of concern. A book citing anonymous sources says ASML broke an informal agreement with the US on DUV sales in 2023.
Rules with future dates create a rush to buy before them. If you sell into that rush, you win the quarters in between, and you test your standing with the regulator. Decide which one you are protecting.
The records behind this video
Every figure in the video comes from this Decision Record, each with its sources.
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