Stratrix

StratonomicsDeals and portfolio

The Decision Ledger

Are large companies making big moves, and faster or slower than they used to?

Sources SEC, Federal Reserve, BLSUpdated quarterlyEditions 1

Every time a large US public company completes an acquisition, sells a business or commits to a restructuring, it has four business days to tell the SEC. Counted together, those filings are a public record of big moves, made as they happen rather than explained a year later.

The Decision Ledger counts them every quarter, per company, against the pace large companies kept before 2020, and sets them against the cost of money from the Federal Reserve and layoffs across the economy from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. One number leads each edition: the Ledger, where the pre-2020 pace is 100.

What this theme tracks

  • The Decision Ledger: completed deals and restructurings per company, against the same quarter before 2020
  • Completed deals and restructurings, each on its own
  • The federal funds rate
  • Restructurings at large companies against layoffs across the economy
  • Moves by sector, and every filing of the quarter, linked to the SEC

Latest edition · Q3 2026 · October 27, 2026

The Decision Ledger Reads 80: Big US Companies Are Moving at 80% of Their Pre-2020 Pace

Completed deals and restructurings per company, against the same quarter in 2016–2019. The Ledger fell to 80 in Q3 2026 from 98, its busiest reading since the second quarter of 2020. Deals did most of the falling in the slump of 2022 to 2024, and most of the coming back.

What happened

  1. The Ledger reads 80. Large US public companies completed deals and restructurings at 80% of their pre-2020 pace in Q3 2026: 108 disclosures, against an average of 138 for the same quarter in 2016–2019.
  2. The best quarter since the second quarter of 2020 did not last. The Ledger read 98 in Q2 2026, its highest since the second quarter of 2020. One quarter later it is back about where it stood a year ago, at 83.
  3. Deals carried the slump and the recovery. In 2023 and 2024, completed deals ran at 55% of their pre-2020 pace while the federal funds rate averaged 5.08%. With the rate at 3.67%, deals stand at 78.
  4. Restructuring moved on its own clock. In the first quarter of 2023, large companies filed restructurings at 1.8 times their pre-2020 pace while layoffs across the whole economy sat at 96 on the same scale. Today restructurings read 91.
  5. Finance moved; industry waited. Finance, insurance and real estate disclosed 20 moves in Q3 2026, above its pre-2020 average of 17. Manufacturing disclosed 42 against 55, services 14 against 24.
80The Decision Ledger, Q3 2026. Same quarter in 2016–2019 = 100
83Completed deals disclosed in Q3 2026. The third-quarter average before 2020: 110
55%Deals in 2023–2024, as a share of their pre-2020 pace
3.67%Federal funds rate, Q3 2026 average. 2023–2024: 5.08%. 2016–2019: 1.35%
Exhibit 1
The Ledger fell to 80 in Q3 2026, from 98 the quarter before

Completed deals and restructurings per company, same quarter in 2016–2019 = 100, 2016 to 2026

The Decision Ledger, by quarterCompleted deals and restructurings disclosed per company, against the same quarter in 2016–2019 (= 100). Q3 2026: 80. Low since mid-2020: 58 in Q3 2024.4060801001201402016’18’20’22’24202680Q3 2026The Decision Ledger, 2016-02: 88The Decision Ledger, 2016-05: 102The Decision Ledger, 2016-08: 100The Decision Ledger, 2016-11: 95The Decision Ledger, 2017-02: 110The Decision Ledger, 2017-05: 99The Decision Ledger, 2017-08: 100The Decision Ledger, 2017-11: 100The Decision Ledger, 2018-02: 98The Decision Ledger, 2018-05: 105The Decision Ledger, 2018-08: 96The Decision Ledger, 2018-11: 113The Decision Ledger, 2019-02: 104The Decision Ledger, 2019-05: 94The Decision Ledger, 2019-08: 105The Decision Ledger, 2019-11: 91The Decision Ledger, 2020-02: 78The Decision Ledger, 2020-05: 124The Decision Ledger, 2020-08: 71The Decision Ledger, 2020-11: 84The Decision Ledger, 2021-02: 79The Decision Ledger, 2021-05: 85The Decision Ledger, 2021-08: 84The Decision Ledger, 2021-11: 86The Decision Ledger, 2022-02: 60The Decision Ledger, 2022-05: 69The Decision Ledger, 2022-08: 62The Decision Ledger, 2022-11: 67The Decision Ledger, 2023-02: 85The Decision Ledger, 2023-05: 66The Decision Ledger, 2023-08: 66The Decision Ledger, 2023-11: 65The Decision Ledger, 2024-02: 65The Decision Ledger, 2024-05: 79The Decision Ledger, 2024-08: 58The Decision Ledger, 2024-11: 68The Decision Ledger, 2025-02: 64The Decision Ledger, 2025-05: 69The Decision Ledger, 2025-08: 83The Decision Ledger, 2025-11: 85The Decision Ledger, 2026-02: 87The Decision Ledger, 2026-05: 98The Decision Ledger, 2026-08: 80
Source: SEC 8-K filings, Items 2.01 and 2.05. Stratonomics analysis.
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Q3 2026 · October 27, 2026The Decision Ledger Reads 80: Big US Companies Are Moving at 80% of Their Pre-2020 PaceCompleted deals and restructurings per company, against the same quarter in 2016–2019. The Ledger fell to 80 in Q3 2026 from 98, its busiest reading since the second quarter of 2020. Deals did most of the falling in the slump of 2022 to 2024, and most of the coming back.Read the edition →

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