Open records
5 of 85 records, free, exactly as they appear in the set. 46 more verified records are in the purchased files.
| Company | Fork date | The fork | Options | Choice | Stated rationale | What happened | Judgment analyst | Sources |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23andMe Read the story → verified | 2021 | How to turn a one-time genetic test into recurring revenue justifying its valuation |
| Sell repeatable service | Telehealth is a repeat-purchase business, the annuity the one-time spit kit lacked | 5 years · 2025-03-23 bankruptcy: 23andMe and 11 affiliated debtors filed for Chapter 11 on March 23, 2025 | reversibility low verdict reversed | Fierce Healthcare (2021-02); ElevenFlo (citing 23andMe SEC filings) (2025-06); 23andMe Media Center / GlobeNewswire (2021-10); Kroll Restructuring Administration / U.S. Bankruptcy Court, Eastern District of Missouri (2025-03) |
| AIG Read the story → verified | 2001 | Whether to expand AIGFP into writing mortgage-linked credit default swaps backed by AIG's AAA rating |
| Push into mortgage CDS | Because AIG carried a top-tier credit rating, it could write the swaps without posting collateral up front | 5 years · 2008-09-16 Federal Reserve loan: the Federal Reserve agreed to lend up to $85 billion | reversibility low verdict reversed | Institutional Investor (2009); GAO / U.S. Government Accountability Office (2009); Kellogg School of Management / Kellogg Insight (2022-04); Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (2008-09) |
| Amazon Fire Phone Read the story → verified | 2014 | Whether to ship a low-cost free-with-Prime phone or a premium flagship priced against the iPhone |
| Ship premium flagship | Bezos believed only a differentiated high-end phone could compete against Apple and Samsung | 1 year · 2015-09 Product status: Amazon confirmed it had sold through its inventory with no plans to restock, discontinuing the product | reversibility low verdict reversed | Mobile Phone Museum / Wikipedia corroborating via Wall Street Journal sourcing (2023); Slate (2014-06); Wikipedia (Fire Phone article, citing contemporaneous press reports) (2024); Recode (Vox Media) (2014-10); Fortune (2015-09) |
| AOL-Time Warner Read the story → verified | 2000-01-10 | Whether AOL should spend its bubble-valued stock to acquire Time Warner's hard media assets |
| Buy hard assets with stock | AOL knew its dial-up business was a wasting asset and its stock was overvalued, so it converted the paper into hard assets before the market noticed | 5 years · 2004 SEC settlement and revenue restatement: Time Warner paid $300 million to the SEC and restated, cutting AOL's advertising revenue by approximately $500 million | reversibility low verdict held | America Online Inc. / Time Warner Inc. — SEC EDGAR (2000-01); AOL Time Warner Inc. — SEC EDGAR (2002); Time Warner Inc. — SEC EDGAR (2004-12) |
| Apple Newton Read the story → verified | 1998-02-27 | Whether to kill the Newton product while keeping the infrastructure it forced Apple to build |
| Kill product, keep assets | Jobs disliked the Newton's stylus and canceled it partly for that reason | 1 year · 1999-02 proceeds from selling down ARM stake: reduced holding to 14.8% and made approximately $1.1 billion from the sales | reversibility low verdict held | Apple Computer, Inc. (via MacRumors reproduction of original press release) (2023-02); Tedium / AppleInsider (2018-06) |
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- Fork date at the precision the record supports, never sharper.
- The fork, the options, the choice in the form the company faced them.
- Stated rationale as the company gave it or the record documents it, not our theory.
- Capital committed where the record states it; blank where it does not.
- Outcomes at one, three and five years or latest, each dated and cited.
- Reversibility and verdict as analyst judgments, marked as such.
- Every source, with dates and links, per record and in an appendix.