$299Precedent Set · one-time · Excel, JSON, PowerPoint, Word, PDF

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5 of 18 records, free, exactly as they appear in the set. 7 more verified records are in the purchased files.

CompanyFork dateThe forkOptionsChoiceStated rationaleWhat happenedJudgment analystSources
Alphabet (Google)
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verified
2005Whether to give Android away free and open-source to win mobile distribution
  • Give the OS away free Open-source Android to any manufacturer to win distribution
  • Sell the software Monetize the operating system directly rather than giving it away
Give the OS away freeTo ensure that whatever phone the world bought, Google Search and Google's ads rode along5 years · 2024-08
Antitrust ruling: A U.S. court ruled the default-search payments were how Google unlawfully maintained its search monopoly
reversibility low
verdict held
Wikipedia / Andy Rubin article (2026); Wikipedia — Usage share of operating systems (2025-12); HubiFi (2025-10); Search Engine Land (reporting on U.S. District Court, D.C.) (2026-02)
AMD
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2003-04How AMD should bring 64-bit computing to x86: extend the existing instruction set or take a clean-break approach
  • Backward-compatible x86 extension Extend x86 to 64-bit, keeping 32-bit software running unchanged.
  • Clean-break 64-bit architecture Adopt a new instruction set requiring emulation or rewrites.
Backward-compatible x86 extensionThe extension kept the entire 32-bit x86 software universe running unchanged, avoiding an emulation tax or rewrite.5 years · 2010-08-04
FTC settlement remedies: The FTC settlement imposed behavioral remedies but no monetary fine on Intel, which admitted no violation
reversibility low
verdict held
Wikipedia / openSUSE Wiki (corroborated) (2024); Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. via SEC EDGAR (2009-11); Intel Corporation via SEC EDGAR (2010-08)
Apple
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verified
2023-09Whether to keep proprietary Lightning or switch the iPhone to USB-C
  • Keep Lightning until deadline Run the clock and sell Lightning iPhones up to the wire
  • Switch iPhone to USB-C early Move the whole line to USB-C ahead of the EU deadline
Switch iPhone to USB-C earlyOnce compliance was inevitable, maintaining two connector designs was more expensive than switching the whole line at once1 year · 2025-02-19
Lightning discontinuation: Lightning fully discontinued as the iPhone SE (3rd gen) is dropped
reversibility low
verdict held
Wikipedia / Lightning (connector) (2025-02); OWC/MacSales.com (2022-10)
Apple
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verified
2011-04-15Should Apple sue Samsung on design patents to set a price for the iPhone's look?
  • Sue on design patents Assert ownership of the iPhone's shape and interface in court.
  • Do not sue Rely on the product rather than litigation to compete.
Sue on design patentsApple sought to establish that Samsung had copied the iPhone's design and to put a price on the iPhone's look5 years · 2018-06
settlement: Apple and Samsung settled all remaining claims on undisclosed terms
reversibility low
verdict partial
U.S. District Court, Northern District of California (2011-04); U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit / NYU Law (2012); SGR Law (2016); Supreme Court of the United States (2016-12); Wikipedia / Am Badar & Partners (2018-06)
ASML
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2012Whether to sell equity stakes to its own chipmaker customers to lock in EUV as the standard
  • Sell equity to customers Turn Intel, TSMC, Samsung into co-owners bound to EUV
  • Stay independent, sell tools Remain a monopoly supplier customers could hedge against
Sell equity to customersSelling customers equity inverted their incentive to fund a rival second source, making the hedge irrational5 years · 2024
overall lithography share: ASML holds approximately 94 percent of lithography by value; Nikon ~2.5%, Canon ~3.4%
reversibility low
verdict held
ASML Holding NV / SEC EDGAR (2012-08); 36kr / Morgan Stanley Securities (underlying data) (2025-08)

What is in the set

ExcelSortable records, outcomes and sources
JSONDrop it into your AI workspace
PowerPointOne record per slide, action titles, source lines
WordEditable, with the source appendix
PDFThe reading copy
  • Fork date at the precision the record supports, never sharper.
  • The fork, the options, the choice in the form the company faced them.
  • Stated rationale as the company gave it or the record documents it, not our theory.
  • Capital committed where the record states it; blank where it does not.
  • Outcomes at one, three and five years or latest, each dated and cited.
  • Reversibility and verdict as analyst judgments, marked as such.
  • Every source, with dates and links, per record and in an appendix.

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