Open records
5 of 62 records, free, exactly as they appear in the set. 34 more verified records are in the purchased files.
| Company | Fork date | The fork | Options | Choice | Stated rationale | What happened | Judgment analyst | Sources |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7-Eleven Read the story → verified | 1987-12-16 | Whether Southland should take itself private via a leveraged buyout to defend against a takeover threat |
| Leveraged buyout to go private | To preempt a reported hostile takeover threat and keep control of the company | 5 years · 2005 full acquisition: Seven-Eleven Japan launched a tender offer for the remaining 27.7% it did not own, completing the buyout | reversibility low verdict reversed | Encyclopedia.com (from International Directory of Company Histories) (2004); D Magazine (1988-04); FundingUniverse / International Directory of Company Histories (2004); U.S. SEC / EDGAR — The Southland Corporation (CIK 92344) (1994); Wikipedia — Seven-Eleven Japan (2024) |
| Aldi Read the story → verified | 1977 | How to enter the US grocery market: force a large box or hold the disciplined format |
| Close the ill-fitting store | The building was too large to operate the Aldi way, so a store too big is a broken machine Aldi would rather not run | 5 years · 2024 expansion plan: invest over $9 billion and open 800 new stores by end of 2028, reaching nearly 3,200 | reversibility high verdict held | Supermarket News / Winsight Grocery Business (2024-08); Wikipedia (citing Aldi corporate announcements) (2024); Placer.ai / Grocery Dive (2025-03); ALDI USA (2024) |
| Alibaba Read the story → verified | 2003 | How to counter eBay's entry into China's C2C market: match its global fee model or build a free, trust-solving platform |
| Build free local platform | Free listings and escrow manufactured the trust the Chinese market was missing, which eBay's global rulebook could not match | 5 years · 2013 China retail marketplaces GMV: combined GMV of US$248 billion from 231 million active buyers and 8 million active sellers | reversibility low verdict held | INSEAD Knowledge (2022-08); IMD Business School (2022); Brand Vision (2023); U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (2014-05) |
| Alibaba Read the story → verified | 2022 | Whether to keep publishing the Singles' Day GMV figure or go silent on it |
| Go silent on total | The number had stopped climbing, so announcing it would confirm the slowdown | 3 years · 2024 2024 Singles' Day traditional vs livestream e-commerce: livestream generated 215 billion yuan up 19%, while traditional e-commerce generated 924 billion yuan and fell 1% | reversibility high verdict held | TR Business / trbusiness.com (2023-11); SEC EDGAR / Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (2024-02); SEC EDGAR / Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (2024-08); U.S. International Trade Administration / trade.gov (2024); Sixth Tone (2024-10) |
| ASML Read the story → verified | 2023 | Whether to keep selling DUV machines to China as export controls were announced with future effective dates |
| Sell DUV before controls bite | Dutch policy was country-neutral and invited continued case-by-case sales, and buyers front-loaded orders against dated, itemized restrictions | Latest · 2023 China share of net system sales: China accounted for 41% of ASML net system sales in 2023 | reversibility medium verdict held | NL Times (citing Financieele Dagblad and book by Baazil & Koc) (2025-11); ASML Holding NV — SEC EDGAR (2025-01); ASML Holding NV (2024-09); AI Policy Bulletin (2026-04); ASML Holding NV — SEC EDGAR (2025-01) |
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- Fork date at the precision the record supports, never sharper.
- The fork, the options, the choice in the form the company faced them.
- Stated rationale as the company gave it or the record documents it, not our theory.
- Capital committed where the record states it; blank where it does not.
- Outcomes at one, three and five years or latest, each dated and cited.
- Reversibility and verdict as analyst judgments, marked as such.
- Every source, with dates and links, per record and in an appendix.