Merck's defining moves.
The defining strategic moves at Merck — each one explained and grounded in the record.
Moat Anatomy · Moat Anatomy
One Molecule Is Half of Merck. In 2028, the Patent on It Runs Out.
Keytruda brought in $29.5 billion in 2024 — nearly half of Merck's $64.2 billion. The core patent on the molecule expires in 2028, and no pipeline bet, including a subcutaneous sequel, can fully replace it in time.
8 min
The Crisis Response · Crisis Response
Merck's Vioxx Recall Is Taught as a Model of Responsibility. The Paper Trail Says Otherwise.
The story is that Merck pulled Vioxx the moment it found cardiac risk. The paper trail says it found the first signal in 1999, got an FDA warning in 2001, and withdrew in 2004 — after five years and $100M-a-year in ads.
8 min
The Crisis Response · Decision Forks
Merck Paid $5.8 Billion for Vioxx and Admitted Almost Nothing. That Was the Plan.
Merck pulled Vioxx in 2004 over heart-attack risk, then paid out more than $5.8 billion across civil, criminal, and shareholder channels. The settlement that defined the era wasn't a surrender. It was an engineering project: pay everyone, admit nothing, and cap the bill.
8 min
The Cannibalization Choice · Decision Forks
Merck Didn't Spin Off Organon to Set It Free. It Spun Off Organon to Get Paid.
The story is a tidy strategic divorce: Merck shed slow-growth women's health to focus on oncology. The real move was a leveraged cash grab — Merck loaded ~$9.5 billion of debt onto Organon and pocketed ~$9 billion of it on the way out the door.
7 min