The decisions that made it
The Reversal · Decision Forks
BP Has Done This Before. 'Beyond Petroleum' Was a Logo, Not a Strategy.
In February 2025 BP scrapped its 50 GW renewables target and tripled oil-and-gas spend to ~$10 billion a year. It looks like a fresh reset. It's the third lap of the same loop — green slogan, market pressure, retreat to the barrel.
8 min
The Crisis Response · Crisis & Reinvention
BP Didn't Lose the Gulf in the Blowout. It Lost It at the Microphone.
An explosion killed 11 workers and a court later ruled BP grossly negligent. But the reputational collapse came from what BP said next: a flow rate it low-balled to ~1,000 barrels a day when the truth was around 62,000.
8 min
The Crisis Response · Crisis & Reinvention
BP Botched the PR and Survived Anyway. The Spill Was Reputational, Not Financial.
BP's Deepwater Horizon response was a masterclass in what not to do — its CEO said he'd like his life back while oil gushed, and its flow estimate was off by a factor of 12. Yet a 2022 study found no statistically significant decline in BP's long-run stock returns.
8 min
The Cannibalization Choice · Decision Forks
BP Tried to Have It Both Ways on Climate. It Got Neither.
In 2020 BP vowed to 'fundamentally transform' from an oil company into a clean-energy one. Five years later it raised oil-and-gas spending to ~$10bn/year, called its own faith in the transition 'misplaced,' and still trades at ~$85bn against Exxon's ~$500bn.
8 min