The Counterfactual · Decision Forks
Bayer Paid $63 Billion for a Lawsuit It Could Read in Advance
Bayer closed its Monsanto deal in June 2018 already knowing glyphosate was a 'probable carcinogen' and that 120-plus toxic-tort cases were pending. It then lost over 40% of its market cap and announced a $10.1–$10.9 billion settlement in 2020 — with litigation provisions later raised to €11.8 billion — as the legal costs kept compounding. Walking away was the cheaper path — and it was on the table.
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