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Every business inside your company was entered on a written case. It exists, it is dated, and somebody's name is on the forecast. The case for leaving has never been written, because writing it is nobody's job and volunteering to write it is career-limiting — so the case for staying is refreshed annually by people rewarded for producing it, and the business runs until its losses become impossible to defend in a bad year. This pack computes the burn: the operating loss plus the capital the business absorbs, which almost never appear in the same sentence, stated at your own multiple. It prices leaving today, and how many years of patience that buys. Then it computes the same exit at the end of your own estimate of breakeven, with the burn spent waiting added and what a buyer would pay thinned, and returns the difference. It stops on four conditions: nobody has priced leaving, nobody has said how long until it stops losing money, nobody has said how fast a buyer's price thins, and nobody has said what it would cost to be back in.
The test that runs through every file
Every company has a written case for entering a business and none for leaving one, so exits happen by exhaustion rather than by decision — and the cost of leaving grows every year the decision is not taken. It is the argument in the deck, it becomes the wizard’s axes, it drives the model’s inputs, and it reappears as lines on the checklist. That is what makes 16 files a product rather than 16 documents.
The model resolves to one number you can negotiate with: The price of the delay — what waiting costs if you leave anyway. It ships blank and worked, and every input is a named cell rather than a figure buried inside a formula, so the number arrives with its assumptions attached rather than on its own authority.
What is in the Exit Strategy Pack
- Foundations. The framework: the asymmetry, the burn, what leaving costs, the price of the delay, and the four halts.
- Concept deck. Twenty-one slides for a board or portfolio session, with nine sourced exits and what each does not establish.
- Decision wizard. Eight scored questions returning the band, the weakest answer, and either of the two halt conditions.
- Exit model. Eleven candidate years to breakeven across the columns, the cost of leaving in each of them, and the price of the delay.
- Strategies and tactics. The moves at each of the four positions, what to do when the model halts, and four ways to make the next exit cheaper to decide.
- Case studies. Nine sourced exits — one that took forty years, one that cost $400 million to hand a division away, one company that did the same trade twice.
- Fit worksheet. The single page of record: the burn, the exit price, the buyer, the price of the delay and the date.
- Roadmap template. Five phases with gates and owners, the assumptions register, a trigger and a periodic reporting line.
- Practitioner manual. Adding the capital to the loss, pricing the exit, the estimate's history, the board paper, six failure modes and their indicators.
- Field checklist. The one-pager that survives outside the binder.
- About the package. What each file does and the order in which to run them.
An honest note on fit
This is a kit for running a decision, not a research report and not a course. It is worth buying if a real decision is in front of you and you would otherwise start from a blank page. It is not worth buying to read.
Worked examples use an explicitly fictional business, labeled on every file that contains one, with numbers tuned to teach rather than to flatter — each worked case is built so that the decision does not simply come out well, and so that what settles it is the test the pack exists to run. A worked example where everything works is a brochure. The price excludes customization, implementation and support, and where the pack reasons beyond its evidence it says so on the page.
Questions
- What is the Exit Strategy Pack?
- The Exit Strategy Pack is a decision-support kit for one question: What would it cost to leave, and what does waiting cost if you leave anyway? It contains 16 files — foundations, concept deck, decision wizard, exit model, strategies and tactics, case studies, fit worksheet, roadmap template, practitioner manual, field checklist, about the package — built around a single organizing test: every company has a written case for entering a business and none for leaving one, so exits happen by exhaustion rather than by decision — and the cost of leaving grows every year the decision is not taken. It is what a leadership team uses to run the decision and leave a record of what they assumed, rather than a report about the topic.
- Who is the Exit Strategy Pack for?
- Anyone who has to make this call and answer for it: an operator or owner facing the decision, the executive team running it, the board or investor testing the reasoning, or an adviser who would otherwise build the framework from a blank page. It is worth buying when a real decision is in front of you. It is not worth buying to read.
- What is in the Exit Strategy Pack?
- 16 files in Word, PDF, PowerPoint and Excel: Foundations (Word + PDF) — The framework: the asymmetry, the burn, what leaving costs, the price of the delay, and the four halts. Concept deck (PowerPoint + PDF) — Twenty-one slides for a board or portfolio session, with nine sourced exits and what each does not establish. Decision wizard (Excel) — Eight scored questions returning the band, the weakest answer, and either of the two halt conditions. Exit model (Excel, blank and worked) — Eleven candidate years to breakeven across the columns, the cost of leaving in each of them, and the price of the delay. Strategies and tactics (Word) — The moves at each of the four positions, what to do when the model halts, and four ways to make the next exit cheaper to decide. Case studies (Word) — Nine sourced exits — one that took forty years, one that cost $400 million to hand a division away, one company that did the same trade twice. Fit worksheet (Word, blank and worked) — The single page of record: the burn, the exit price, the buyer, the price of the delay and the date. Roadmap template (Word) — Five phases with gates and owners, the assumptions register, a trigger and a periodic reporting line. Practitioner manual (Word + PDF) — Adding the capital to the loss, pricing the exit, the estimate's history, the board paper, six failure modes and their indicators. Field checklist (PDF) — The one-pager that survives outside the binder. About the package (PDF) — What each file does and the order in which to run them.
- What number does the Exit Strategy Pack produce?
- The price of the delay — what waiting costs if you leave anyway. The model ships blank and worked, and every input is a named cell rather than a figure buried inside a formula, so the number you take into a room arrives with its assumptions attached and can be argued with rather than merely believed.
- How is the Exit Strategy Pack delivered?
- As a single download of all 16 files, immediately after payment, with the same link sent by email. It can be downloaded 3 times and the link is valid for 30 days. There is nothing to install and no account to keep.
- How much does the Exit Strategy Pack cost, and is it a subscription?
- $499, one-time. It is not a subscription and there is nothing to cancel. Where the pack is revised within 180 days of your purchase, the new release is yours. The price does not include customization, implementation help or support.
- Are the worked examples in the Exit Strategy Pack real companies?
- The case studies are real, sourced and dated, and each one states what its evidence does not establish. The worked model, wizard and worksheet use an explicitly fictional business, labeled as such on every file that contains one. A worked model needs roughly fifteen populated inputs; for a real company you would have public figures for perhaps four, and the rest would be estimates wearing the authority of a spreadsheet.