The decisions that made it
The Cannibalization Choice · Decision Forks
Philip Morris Set Out to Kill Its Own Cigarette. It Got Halfway, and the Half That Stalled Tells You Why.
PMI staked over $16 billion since 2008 on a device meant to replace Marlboro. By FY2025 smoke-free products were 41.5% of revenue and IQOS had outsold Marlboro for a quarter — but combustibles still pay the bills, and one patent loss froze the whole plan out of America.
8 min
The Cannibalization Choice · Decision Forks
Philip Morris Says It's Killing Cigarettes. Its Cigarette Revenue Is Still Growing.
Smoke-free products hit ~39% of PMI's 2024 revenue, and the company calls it self-cannibalization. But combustible net revenue grew 4.0% the same year. PMI isn't destroying its cigarette business - it's arbitraging the gap between markets that allow IQOS and markets that don't.
8 min
The Adjacency Expansion · Growth & Portfolio
PMI Didn't Buy Swedish Match to Diversify. It Bought a Door Back into America.
PMI's $16 billion Swedish Match deal looks like a bet on nicotine pouches. It was really a return ticket: spun off from Altria in 2008 with no US footprint, PMI bought ZYN's 74%+ market share because it had no organic way to earn one.
8 min