The Counterfactual · Decision Forks
Bayer Paid $63 Billion for Monsanto. Today the Whole Company Is Worth Less Than That.
Bayer's Monsanto deal is told as a litigation disaster — bad luck with juries. The real story is worse: a 44% premium for a declining business, ~$57B of bridge debt, and lawsuits its own advisers had flagged. By 2026 the entire company was worth ~$44B.
8 min